Gale Warning 261, NWS Anchorage, AK

735 
FZAK51 PAFC 141836 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1035 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

UPDATED ZONE 125 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150200-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 973 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WEAKENS TO 1006 MB 
MON NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO 250 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
$$

PKZ120-150200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E WIND 40 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-150200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW.  
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-150200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1035 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-150200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WIND BECOMING E 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY
DURING THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-150200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
710 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-150200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
710 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-150200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-150200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
710 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-150200-
KACHEMAK BAY
710 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

488 
FZAK51 PAFC 142237
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151400-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A COMPLEX LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 225 NM SOUTH 
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING FROM 983 MB 
TO 1005 MB. 

$$

PKZ120-151400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E WIND 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND IN THE EVENING. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-151400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN 
THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-151400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-151400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT... 

.TONIGHT...E OF DANGEROUS CAPE...N WIND 35 KT. W OF DANGEROUS CAPE...
NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-151400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED OFF LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND
KAMCHATKA THIS MORNING WITH STRONG RIDGES OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES ARE VERTICALLY STACKED OVER
SURFACE LOWS...WITH SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
BERING RIDGE AND THE GULF LOW...CREATING PERSISTENT BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG THE TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WAVES OF ENERGY
MOVING AROUND THE GULF LOW ARE ALSO BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUE WITH THE KAMCHATKA LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING TO THE BERING. AT THAT TIME THE EC HAS THE
BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN DEVELOPING A TRIPLE POINT LOW WELL
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR...WHICH THEN REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY MON NIGHT. THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF
WEAKENS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE AND IS THEN
ABSORBED BY A SOUTHEAST AK LOW. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NAM/GFS IN
THE EARLY PERIODS...BLENDS TOWARD THE EC THROUGH MID-WEEK AND THEN
RELIES UPON HPC GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE KAMCHATKA LOW WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTH FLOW TO THE ALEUTIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN TODAY...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT INTO MON. TUE NIGHT A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR
TO THE SAME AREA...FOLLOWED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU. WIND WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND EXTREME WIND
CHILLS WILL EASE BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...THE LOW SPINNING IN THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SURGES OF RAIN AND SNOW TO COASTAL LOCATIONS
THROUGH TUE...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN TODAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INLAND THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION
FRI AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO
SOUTHWEST AK. A WEATHER FRONT FROM A LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AK PEN
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THU...BRINGING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO THE GULF
COAST WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

PUBLIC...181 BLIZZARD WARNING
MARINE...GALES 120 121 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179
         185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 138 140 150 155 165 170 171
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAR 10