Gale Warning 198, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT WED MAR 17 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AND OVER INTERIOR
AK THIS MORNING. CLOSED UPPER LOWS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
KAMCHATKA. AT THE SURFACE...LOWS ARE JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND OVER SE AK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND AK
EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A WEATHER FRONT IS OVER THE
WESTERN BERING MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THU WITH THE BERING FRONT
REACHING THE WEST COAST OF AK BEFORE DISSIPATING THU AFTERNOON...A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND IN THE
SAME TIME FRAME...AND AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF WED NIGHT AND REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THU
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE EC BECOMES THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL. THE
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS THROUGH FRI...THE EC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND HPC GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...GALES AND SOME STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THU. ON FRI AND SAT A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CHAIN WITH RAIN AND
SNOW BEFORE DISSIPATING SAT NIGHT.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS THU AS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PUSHES TO THE AK PEN AND
THEN DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT...ENDING ANY LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK PEN...CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS. ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WED NIGHT AS THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE COAST.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THU WILL BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS WITH MORE
REACHING WEST AND NORTH OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS ON FRI AND
SAT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...RIDGING WILL END PRECIPITATION SUN BUT ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING SNOW AND RAIN TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS MON AND TUE. CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST AK INTO TUE. SOUTHEAST
ALASKA SHOWERS WILL END SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 172 175 176 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAR 10