Brisk Wind Advisory 37, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT WED MAR 17 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. AN STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR NORTHERN
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS VERTICALLY STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH OVER NORTHWEST CANADA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A STRONG LOW NEAR NORTHERN
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD SIBERIA. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION..
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GULF THURSDAY. THE EC AND NAM MODELS
TEND TO WEAKEN THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FRI WHILE THE GFS MOVES
IT INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EC
SOLUTION BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT MODEL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINLAND...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 500 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW TONIGHT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND
WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVE INSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
THURSDAY AND BECOME SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY STRONG EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY. AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST FRIDAY.

BERING SEA...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE THURSDAY THEN
WILL MOST LIKELY DISSIPATE ALONG THE DELTA COAST FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A MODERATE LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE FRIDAY
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130 132 138 140 141 172 176 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 10