Brisk Wind Advisory 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTON SOUND, THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE COOK INLET. A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1002 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES
TO DRIFT WEST. A WEAK RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. A
DOUBLE-CENTERED LOW LIES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I PREFER THE
NAM MODEL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL INTERIOR DUE TO THE BETTER DETAIL IN
THE PRESSURE PATTERN, OTHERWISE ANY MODEL WILL DO OVER THE WATER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER HIGH OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERING AND EASTERN RUSSIA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CONFINED TO THE ALEUTIANS
AND BERING SEA. AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
BECOMING STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
A WEAK LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND PARTS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL SWING UP INTO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AND BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, THOUGH
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER
LOW LYING AREAS AND BOTTOMS OF VALLEYS. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH IT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE MULTI-CENTERED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONGEAL INTO A
SINGLE CENTER SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY. A WEATHER FRONT
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH IT ON TUESDAY, BUT WILL REFORM OVER THE EASTERN BERING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVER WEST-CENTRAL
MAINLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE MONDAY
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 10