Tornado Warning 27, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE CROSSING WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT WITH WARM FRONT
ACROSS NRN SD AND BOUNDARY/DRY LINE DRAPED ALONG WRN-SRN EDGE OF
BLACK HILLS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S BEHIND IT AND 60S AHEAD OF IT.
ANOTHER WAVE ROTATING THROUGH UPPER TROF INTO SRN MT WILL SWING
ACROSS NWRN SD OVERNIGHT AS TROF PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS MT. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS WRN SD TUES MORNING..WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT...THOUGH NWRN SD MAY STILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS AS TROF MOVES ACROS ND...AND FORECAST AREA REMAINS
UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOR THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER TUESDAY INTO WED MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS WRN
SD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES WED...BUT WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SEWD...LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVER FAR SRN SD WED NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATER
THIS WEEK BRINING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1045 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2009

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-141300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1045 AM MDT (1145 AM CDT) MON JUL 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER ALL OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
OR NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO IS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...AND REACHING CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE BLACK
HILLS THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
546 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             NEW HAVEN               44.75N 104.85W
07/13/2009  E4.25 INCH       CROOK              WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MERICKSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
554 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HULETT                  44.68N 104.60W
07/13/2009                   CROOK              WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MERICKSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
557 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             5 NNE UPTON             44.17N 104.59W
07/13/2009  E0.75 INCH       WESTON             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MERICKSO