Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
815 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

.UPDATE...
HAVE TRIMMED NORTHWEST PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER
9. SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF THE LINE OF STORMS...
WHERE GOOD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE.

DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GENERAL FORECAST.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO TRIM CONVECTIVE WATCH AS THE LINE MOVES
EAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
703 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
702 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.
        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
         ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ON GOING
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO DEEPER...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. WIND
FIELDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO DEVELOP SUPER CELLS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT...EXITING EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT 2 AM. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY 4 AM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL EARLY.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING..WITH SHOWERS MORE LIKELY. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE SOME WILD FIRE POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A GREATER WILD FIRE THREAT WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY WHEN STRONG...DRY WESTERLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
708 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     HAIL             RAMONA                  36.53N 95.92W
02/10/2009  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED BY KOTV

&&

SFP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
855 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

ARZ001-010-OKZ049-062-063-067>075-110415-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-HASKELL OK-LATIMER
OK-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA
OK-SEQUOYAH OK-WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON AR-
855 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN BENTON

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     MUSKOGEE...CHEROKEE AND WESTERN SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...ADAIR AND
     SOUTHEASTERN MAYES

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN MCINTOSH...HASKELL...PITTSBURG...NORTHERN PUSHMATAHA AND
     WESTERN LATIMER

AT 855 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF PEGGS TO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ASHLAND...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THIS AREA ALSO.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3460 9589 3468 9589 3468 9608 3469 9610
      3489 9609 3624 9510 3627 9422 3463 9542
      3459 9579 3459 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 261DEG 27KT 3614 9507 3465 9631