Severe Thunderstorm Warning 500, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERNS CENTERED ON ONGOING SEVERE EVENT.
SOMEWHAT BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT MIAMI TO MUSKOGEE TO ADA. MEASURED WINDS TO 70
MPH HAVE BEEN RECORDED WITH THESE STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH
LOCAL MESOANALYSIS SHOWING OVER 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...AND A STEADILY
WEAKENING CAP...IN ADDITION TO AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

LINE HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST RATE OF SPEED...AND
DISTANCE SPEED TOOL AND LOCAL WRF MODEL BOTH INDICATE THAT THE
LINE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z.
CURRENT PLAN IS TO HANG ONTO LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM BERRYVILLE...TO FORT SMITH...TO HUGO THROUGH 03Z BEFORE GOING
COMPLETELY DRY...HOWEVER...WILL REEVALUATE THINGS FURTHER IN THE
NEXT HOUR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. ALSO CONCERNING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH...PLAN TO CLEAR COUNTIES LOCATED BEHIND THE
FRONT CLOSE TO PUBLISH TIME.

VERY COOL AND DRY AIR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MESONET OBS
SHOWING A 20 TO 25 DEGREE DEW POINT DROP FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
VERY COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS VERY NEAR TO THOSE FROM THIS PAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

A COUPLE OF COOL AND DRY DAYS WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
AMONG THEMSELVES OR WITH THEIR RUN-TO-RUN COUNTERPARTS. ONLY MADE
A FEW CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS AS A RESULT. MAIN CHANGE WAS
TO BACK OFF ON POPS SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
MODELS NOT REALLY FAVORING ANY ONE TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  75  44  73 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   46  75  46  75 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   43  76  46  76 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   38  72  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   43  69  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   46  68  42  69 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   42  73  46  73 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   44  70  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
F10   47  74  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   49  78  49  78 /  60   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
441 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
440 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM
JAY OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 60 MPH AND
PENNY SIZE HAIL AS THE MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION BY TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
412 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

OKZ049-073-075-012145-
LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
412 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN PITTSBURG...NORTHERN PUSHMATAHA AND SOUTHWESTERN
     LATIMER

AT 412 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF SARDIS TO 26 MILES WEST OF
SARDIS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SARDIS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3448 9564 3454 9568 3459 9568 3459 9571
      3481 9564 3479 9524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 265DEG 21KT 3476 9561 3457 9584

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
437 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

OKZ049-073-075-012215-
LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
437 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN PITTSBURG...NORTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
     SOUTHWESTERN LATIMER

AT 438 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF SARDIS TO 10 MILES WEST OF
EUBANKS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...YANUSH...CLAYTON...STANLEY...TUSKAHOMA...
KIAMICHI...EUBANKS...DUNBAR AND SARDIS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3447 9579 3448 9579 3452 9574 3452 9568
      3458 9568 3476 9546 3468 9511 3438 9549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 283DEG 23KT 3469 9544 3447 9573

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

OKZ076-012230-
LE FLORE OK-
458 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL LE FLORE

AT 458 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF POTEAU TO 10 MILES WEST OF
POTEAU...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...POTEAU.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3512 9444 3492 9445 3501 9484 3513 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 273DEG 28KT 3511 9471 3500 9478

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 PM CDT THU OCT 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEQUIRE                 35.10N 95.11W
10/01/2009  E60 MPH          HASKELL            OK   PUBLIC

&&

KDJ

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