Severe Thunderstorm Warning 495, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERNS CENTERED ON ONGOING SEVERE EVENT.
SOMEWHAT BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT MIAMI TO MUSKOGEE TO ADA. MEASURED WINDS TO 70
MPH HAVE BEEN RECORDED WITH THESE STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH
LOCAL MESOANALYSIS SHOWING OVER 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...AND A STEADILY
WEAKENING CAP...IN ADDITION TO AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

LINE HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST RATE OF SPEED...AND
DISTANCE SPEED TOOL AND LOCAL WRF MODEL BOTH INDICATE THAT THE
LINE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z.
CURRENT PLAN IS TO HANG ONTO LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM BERRYVILLE...TO FORT SMITH...TO HUGO THROUGH 03Z BEFORE GOING
COMPLETELY DRY...HOWEVER...WILL REEVALUATE THINGS FURTHER IN THE
NEXT HOUR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. ALSO CONCERNING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH...PLAN TO CLEAR COUNTIES LOCATED BEHIND THE
FRONT CLOSE TO PUBLISH TIME.

VERY COOL AND DRY AIR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MESONET OBS
SHOWING A 20 TO 25 DEGREE DEW POINT DROP FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
VERY COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS VERY NEAR TO THOSE FROM THIS PAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

A COUPLE OF COOL AND DRY DAYS WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
AMONG THEMSELVES OR WITH THEIR RUN-TO-RUN COUNTERPARTS. ONLY MADE
A FEW CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS AS A RESULT. MAIN CHANGE WAS
TO BACK OFF ON POPS SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
MODELS NOT REALLY FAVORING ANY ONE TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  75  44  73 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   46  75  46  75 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   43  76  46  76 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   38  72  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   43  69  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   46  68  42  69 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   42  73  46  73 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   44  70  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
F10   47  74  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   49  78  49  78 /  60   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EAST OF NOWATA TO HENRYETTA LINE.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
        NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
        NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NOWATA COUNTY INTO
TULSA COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST IN THE OKLAHOMA CITY REGION. CAP STRENGTH
HAS HELD CONVECTION IN CHECK SO FAR...AND EXPECT INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM AS FRONTAL LIFT PERSISTS. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS FIELDS REMAIN SUGGESTIVE OF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE WITH THE
INITIAL STORMS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO LINEAR
MODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS PROGRESS INTO FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION BY TUESDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
230 PM CDT THU OCT 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE HASKELL           35.75N 95.64W
10/01/2009  E70 MPH          MUSKOGEE           OK   MESONET

&&

KDJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

OKZ068-069-012045-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-
320 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL ADAIR

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CHEROKEE

AT 320 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
TAHLEQUAH...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BARON...CHRISTIE...PROCTOR...
WESTVILLE...BALLARD...WATTS...TAHLEQUAH AND ELDON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3612 9456 3588 9452 3582 9496 3596 9502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 252DEG 33KT 3591 9495

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

OKZ070-071-073>075-012100-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
327 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN MUSKOGEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN MCINTOSH...HASKELL...NORTHERN PITTSBURG AND NORTHWESTERN
     LATIMER

AT 327 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF ENTERPRISE TO 5 MILES EAST OF
ARPELAR...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...STIGLER...LEWISVILLE...KINTA...
ENTERPRISE...WHITEFIELD...KANIMA...MCALESTER...KREBS...ARPELAR...
BLOCKER...FEATHERSTON...CROWDER...QUINTON...CANADIAN...BRIARTOWN AND
PORUM.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3536 9487 3488 9535 3493 9603 3540 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 275DEG 30KT 3530 9539 3496 9588

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
332 PM CDT THU OCT 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HAIL             CANADIAN                35.18N 95.65W
10/01/2009  E0.75 INCH       PITTSBURG          OK   PUBLIC

&&

NMM