Severe Thunderstorm Warning 451, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 212028
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

OKC105-212039-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0451.000000T0000Z-090921T2045Z/
NOWATA OK-
328 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NOWATA COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3699 9491 3682 9506 3675 9543 3682 9543
      3700 9540 3700 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 255DEG 18KT 3698 9513 3676 9538

$$

OKC035-115-212045-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0451.000000T0000Z-090921T2045Z/
CRAIG OK-OTTAWA OK-
328 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHERN CRAIG COUNTIES...

AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF WELCH TO CENTRALIA...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CENTRAILIA AND
WELCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 9491 3682 9506 3675 9543 3682 9543
      3700 9540 3700 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 255DEG 18KT 3698 9513 3676 9538

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
158 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEVERE STORM AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN A
REGION OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION. EXPECT THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL MERELY BE THE FIRST SHOW AS ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD HOBART AND
ALTUS. UPPER LOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SOUTHEASTWARD...WHICH
WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 88D MOSAIC SHOWING THAT A FEW CELLS ARE
TRYING TO GO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT ARE CURRENTLY STRUGGLING. VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
IS PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA ESPECIALLY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FAVORS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. ALL OF THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A
RESULTANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A LINEAR STORM MODE FAVORED. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WHICH ARE ALREADY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL CURRENTLY. CONCERN RIGHT NOW WOULD BE HIGHEST ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS.

COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...USHERING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR. DRY SLOT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES
COLDER IN PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PART OF THIS WEEK. ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE UPPER
JET...LEAVING THE REGION IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXACTLY AGREEING...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING QUITE WARM ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  71  52  76 /  90  40  20  10
FSM   68  76  61  74 /  90  60  30  30
MLC   61  71  60  76 /  90  40  20  10
BVO   56  70  49  77 /  90  30  10  10
FYV   62  73  57  72 /  90  60  30  30
BYV   65  72  57  71 /  90  60  30  30
MKO   61  71  56  76 /  90  40  20  10
MIO   59  73  54  77 /  90  40  20  10
F10   61  70  56  78 /  90  40  20  10
HHW   70  74  60  76 /  90  50  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
117 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
115 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BY THE
TIME THE FRONT REACHES NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT...THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING AND THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL DECREASE AS WELL.

ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON AND
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3 OR 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD RAISE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

WHILE THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL REMAIN LOW,..THEY ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER THE PLAINS NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA BUT WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL CHANCES  OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1158 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

OKZ055-056-211745-
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
1158 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN NOWATA AND WASHINGTON

AT 1158 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF COPAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WANN AND COPAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3699 9552 3680 9586 3689 9593 3700 9583
      3700 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 227DEG 17KT 3687 9586

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
148 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

OKZ054-211915-
OSAGE OK-
148 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE

AT 147 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
WEST OF PEARSONIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF WYNONA AND WAS ALSO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF OSAGE COUNTY TO THE NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 20 AND
EAST OF STATE HIGHWAY 18 WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH
215 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9601 3643 9601 3642 9662 3644 9668
      3699 9669 3701 9658
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 235DEG 23KT 3682 9649

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
231 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

ARZ010-011-212015-
MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
231 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON

AT 231 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WINSLOW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HICKS...PATRICK...
DELANEY...CROSSES...JAPTON...WINSLOW...ELKINS...BRENTWOOD...WYOLA...
ARNETT...DURHAM...SULPHUR CITY AND BLACK OAK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3577 9389 3576 9391 3576 9404 3576 9412
      3575 9413 3576 9421 3605 9405 3598 9377
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 210DEG 17KT 3577 9409