Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE. THE ARKANSAS
TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS PERSIST BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE OKLAHOMA TAF SITES WILL SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS
RETURNING LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING AT KTUL AND KRVS...BUT WILL REMAIN MVFR AT KMLC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEVERE STORM AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN A
REGION OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION. EXPECT THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL MERELY BE THE FIRST SHOW AS ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD HOBART AND
ALTUS. UPPER LOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SOUTHEASTWARD...WHICH
WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 88D MOSAIC SHOWING THAT A FEW CELLS ARE
TRYING TO GO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT ARE CURRENTLY STRUGGLING. VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
IS PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA ESPECIALLY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FAVORS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. ALL OF THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A
RESULTANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A LINEAR STORM MODE FAVORED. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WHICH ARE ALREADY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL CURRENTLY. CONCERN RIGHT NOW WOULD BE HIGHEST ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS.

COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...USHERING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR. DRY SLOT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES
COLDER IN PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PART OF THIS WEEK. ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE UPPER
JET...LEAVING THE REGION IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXACTLY AGREEING...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING QUITE WARM ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
515 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
 	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING .

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
 	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA .

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
WELL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH ONGOING FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAZARDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT REACHES NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING AND THE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS WELL.

ONE TO THREE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON
AREAWIDE. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3 OR 5 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS THE HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL IN THIS AREA

THE OVERALL RISK OF TORNADOES WILL REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR A TORNADO WILL OCCUR WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP
WELL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER THE PLAINS NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. $$

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW MORRIS             35.58N 95.90W
09/21/2009  M58 MPH          OKMULGEE           OK   MESONET

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W WAGONER             35.96N 95.46W
09/21/2009  E70 MPH          WAGONER            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

ARZ010-011-019-020-212300-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
529 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN
     MADISON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN FRANKLIN

AT 528 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM A 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF COMBS AND A SECOND STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
EAST OF PINEY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN
CRAWFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 600 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3562 9372 3551 9412 3598 9404 3611 9360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 186DEG 17KT 3578 9389 3559 9402

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

OKZ054-055-060-061-212345-
OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
617 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN ROGERS...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
     TULSA

AT 617 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF OWASSO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...OOLOGAH...OWASSO...
SPERRY...SKIATOOK...COLLINSVILLE AND VERA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3658 9582 3639 9555 3617 9582 3630 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 224DEG 19KT 3630 9591

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

ARZ010-212345-
WASHINGTON AR-
621 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN WASHINGTON

AT 621 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
EAST OF ODELL...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ODELL...WEST FORK...BLACKBURN...
HOGEYE...STRICKLER...WOOLSEY...CLYDE AND CANEHILL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3576 9424 3577 9446 3596 9439 3592 9411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 201DEG 19KT 3578 9436

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
650 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             PRAIRIE GROVE           35.98N 94.32W
09/21/2009  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SAA