Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS
BEEN COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...LOCAL
GRIDDED ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
CAPES EXCEEDING 3500 IN MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THIS AREA AND SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AND
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. ALSO...A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE AXIS OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS BASICALLY AREAWIDE. AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS LATER TONIGHT
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN. MOST OF THE AREA MISSED OUT ON
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM... WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME FORM THE REST OF
THIS WEEK WITH A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. THUS THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT WILL KEEP
GOING FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANYTHING VERY FAR
OUT IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...AND WILL THUS KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

INDICATIONS AREA THAT A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE US WITH AN
EARLY TASTE OF SUMMER. WILL DRY THE FORECAST OUT AT THIS POINT
WITH MOST AREAS WELL INTO THE 90S BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  87  69  87 /  70  30  30  30
FSM   70  87  71  88 /  60  50  50  40
MLC   72  91  71  93 /  60  40  40  40
BVO   66  86  66  85 /  80  20  20  20
FYV   68  83  66  83 /  80  40  50  40
BYV   68  82  65  82 /  80  50  60  40
MKO   70  87  69  86 /  60  40  40  30
MIO   68  84  66  85 /  80  30  40  30
F10   70  90  70  89 /  60  30  30  30
HHW   72  92  72  95 /  60  30  40  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
114 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
110 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

...STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
         ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL EXPAND INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...
HEATING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY IGNITE MORE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SURFACE
BASED STORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE IN AN AREA WITH
ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS AND A RISK OF TORNADOES.
STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL EXPAND INTO ONE OR MORE MCS CLUSTERS.  THIS
WILL POSE A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL IS STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY
IT APPEARS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL BE
THE MOST VULNERABLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT INCLUDES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
119 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND GST     WYANDOTTE               36.79N 94.72W
06/09/2009  E65.00 MPH       OTTAWA             OK   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN NEAR WYANDOTTE

0949 PM     HAIL             3 S WYANDOTTE           36.75N 94.72W
06/09/2009  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   PUBLIC

            WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50.

1025 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW EUREKA SPRINGS     36.45N 93.80W
06/09/2009  E65.00 MPH       CARROLL            AR   PUBLIC

            WIND BLOWN HAIL SEVERELY DAMAGED CEDAR SIDING ON HOUSE.
            LOCATION NEAR BEAVER LAKE DAM ON MUNDELL ROAD

1106 PM     HAIL             1 N ROCKHOUSE           36.30N 93.67W
06/09/2009  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            AR   PUBLIC

1108 PM     HAIL             3 W BERRYVILLE          36.36N 93.62W
06/09/2009  E1.00 INCH       CARROLL            AR   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS SMALL LIMBS BROKEN.

1118 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NE COLCORD            36.35N 94.59W
06/09/2009                   DELAWARE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO TRAILERS HEAVILY DAMAGED. ADD-ON ROOF ON ONE TRAILER
            BLOWN OFF.

1135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W GENTRY              36.27N 94.54W
06/09/2009                   BENTON             AR   POST OFFICE

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 12 WEST OF GENTRY

1137 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W GENTRY              36.27N 94.50W
06/09/2009                   BENTON             AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF SOME HOMES. SHEET METAL ROOFS DAMAGED.

1156 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AURORA                  36.00N 93.70W
06/09/2009                   MADISON            AR   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN AROUND THE AURORA AREA.

1215 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGDALE              36.19N 94.13W
06/10/2009                   WASHINGTON         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS STREETS AND LOW AREAS BRIEFLY FLOODED.

&&

SAA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

OKZ065-066-071-102200-
MCINTOSH OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
406 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN MCINTOSH

AT 406 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF WELEETKA TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
BEARDEN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...OKEMAH...WELEETKA...BEARDEN...CLEARVIEW...
PHAROAH...CASTLE...HENRYETTA...BRYANT AND DEWAR.

A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN OKMULGEE...SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE AND
WESTERN MCINTOSH COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH
500 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3548 9638 3548 9583 3523 9595 3523 9599
      3529 9599 3529 9635 3530 9644 3541 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 251DEG 30KT 3529 9615 3527 9639

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     TERLTON                 36.19N 96.49W
06/10/2009  E65.00 MPH       PAWNEE             OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORT THAT ENTIRE TOWN OUT OF POWER. GUSTS 60 TO 70MPH.
            RELAYED REPORT FROM CLEVELAND

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEVELAND               36.31N 96.46W
06/10/2009                   PAWNEE             OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE BLOWN OVER AND TOOK DOWN POWER LINE.

&&

SAA