Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
608 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... IMPACTING KTUL/KRVS
AFTER 03Z... AND THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES AROUND 04-06Z.
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL END
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH STORMS TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY HIGH AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WIND FIELDS ALOFT FAVOR STORMS EVOLVING
INTO A LARGE LINE WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF INTENSE WINDS.  THIS
EVOLUTION IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO A POSSIBILITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  A LIMITED TORNADIC POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LINE OF STORMS
EVOLVES...WITH THE HIGHEST TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES BEING
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A QUICK
TRANSITION TO FLASH FLOODING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.  THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A DRY PERIOD WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
742 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

OKZ054-059-160200-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
742 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 742 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAINOLA TO 42 MILES WEST
OF PAWNEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SHIDLER...FAIRFAX...BURBANK...
APPERSON...WEBB CITY...PEARSONIA...FORAKER...GRAINOLA...PAWNEE...
MARAMEC...BLACKBURN...SKEDEE AND RALSTON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9640 3696 9631 3616 9663 3616 9681
      3625 9683 3625 9692 3633 9692 3635 9703
      3651 9704 3656 9690 3659 9690 3659 9704
      3670 9707 3671 9705 3670 9694 3676 9689
      3679 9676 3700 9674
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 301DEG 21KT 3718 9699 3645 9754