River Flood Warning 47, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF IFR ARE ALSO NOTED WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIP...AND
ARE FORECAST TO REMAINS PRESENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOG
POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGH FOR TONIGHT AND THIS FORECAST WILL START THE
TREND TOWARD POSSIBLE IMPACTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS KFYV/KXNA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH PRESENT
HAS LEFT SWATH OF 2-5 INCH AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH HEAVY RAIN STILL FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH
WITH MOST AREAS DRY AFTER 18Z. WILL DROP COUNTIES ROUGHLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44 FROM THE WATCH WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE AS ONLY
PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF MLC-FYV WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH 18Z.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS
PRIOR TO 12Z AND SOME SUCH LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE HIGH
TEMP FOR TODAY AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION BRING
TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY LIMITED RECOVERY.
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST AREAS
WHERE TEMPS MAY RECOVER LATE. IN ANY CASE WILL FORECAST HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE AND IN GENERAL WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
MET NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT. CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AREAS IF SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR...HOWEVER THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL
PREVENT THIS FROM OCCURRING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL
EXIST.

FORECAST DOES NOT GET ANY EASIER THIS WEEKEND AS A SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIRMASS MORE REMINISCENT OF MID JANUARY PLUNGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND WILL ENTER THE CWA LATE SATURDAY. AS EXPECTED THE
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WELL AT ALL AND MAY WELL BE
MODIFYING THE COLD AIR MUCH TOO QUICKLY SUNDAY. MORE LIKELY FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE SHALLOW AIRMASS GETS
HUNG UP IN THE TERRAIN...BUT AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPS ALMOST 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS. IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN OCCUR...A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WOULD
SEEM LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THIS AIRMASS IS COLDER THAN ANY WE HAVE SEEN THIS EARLY IN THE
SEASON IN A LONG TIME. HOWEVER...THIS IS A VERY UNCERTAIN
PROPOSITION AT THIS POINT. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE LEANED HEAVILY
ON THE COOLER MET WHICH MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO WARM.

AND NO...IT DOES NOT GET EASIER NEXT WEEK EITHER. EVENTUALLY THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SHOULD ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT MAY COME DOWN MID WEEK. BUT AGAIN...THIS IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS MUCH MORE ZONAL IN NATURE BY THIS
TIME. WHAT APPEARS LIKELY IS A GRAY AND POSSIBLY WET WEEK WITH
TEMPS REMAINING SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL...JUST HOW MUCH REMAINS TO
BE SEEN. IN GENERAL WILL GO COOLER THAN MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM POSSIBLE
THURSDAY LEADING TO A WARMER TREND WITH HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  38  59  36 /  40   0   0  10
FSM   56  42  68  47 / 100   0   0  10
MLC   57  41  67  40 /  80   0   0  10
BVO   57  33  57  34 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   50  34  62  39 /  80   0   0  10
BYV   49  37  60  39 / 100   0   0  10
MKO   54  39  64  40 /  60   0   0  10
MIO   52  35  58  34 /  40   0   0  10
F10   57  39  63  38 /  60   0   0  10
HHW   56  44  66  47 / 100   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ063-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
858 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
858 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLOODING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS NOTED AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD WAS OUT OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WHILE FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED...RUNOFF FROM THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
AREAWIDE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THAT SEE RAIN LINGER THIS MORNING.

RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. RUNOFF STILL MAY PRESENT MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND...HOWEVER WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINING
ACTIVE.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.