Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED SW TO NE
ACROSS THE REGION CREATING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT... AFFECTING
KTUL/KRVS IN OKLAHOMA AND KXNA/KFYV IN NW ARKANSAS. IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THOSE SITES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AT KMLC AND KFSM LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE 18-24 HOURS AS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD
CURRENTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR HAS NOW
BEGUN TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST. SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. MOST OF SOUTHEAST OK IN WARM SECTOR AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S ALONG
WITH LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS. THAT SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN FROM NW TO SE AFTER 06Z
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NE OK. WILL BEGIN TO TAPER POPS
ACCORDINGLY AT THAT TIME. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION AFTER 18Z...WHEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER
THE AREA. REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME VERY COOL CONDITIONS. WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO SUNDAY MORNING ABOVE FREEZING...BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS SHOULD THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
COLDER READINGS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NEXT
WEEK...HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MINIMUMS AND MAXIMUMS FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
AS THE LATEST MOS CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MEX AND ECMWF IN THOSE PERIODS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

ARZ001-010-OKZ063-068-069-090030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-WASHINGTON AR-
651 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND BENTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND NORTHERN ADAIR

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CHEROKEE

AT 651 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF JAY TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OAKS TO 3 MILES WEST OF TAHLEQUAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3650 9461 3650 9390 3636 9392 3592 9444
      3582 9513 3582 9519 3609 9491 3641 9490
      3652 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 245DEG 61KT 3646 9474 3614 9476
          3592 9500