Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...

LEAD 5H TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NE AND WILL CAUSE
THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING. A STRONG 45 KT 850MB JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT DEEP GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE CLOUD COVER HAS PREVENTED
STRONGER SFC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON THUS SFC BASED CAPES WERE ONLY
IN THE 800 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE. BULK 0-6KM SHEAR RANGED FROM 35 KTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO OVER 50 KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. THOUGH 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED A BIT OF AN EML AROUND 850MB.
IF THE ASCENT INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STRONG
STORMS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY
VEER AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...THUS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES MAY NOT
BE TOO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...BUT IF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DO
DEVELOP THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AND THE SLOW MOVING SQUALL LINE MAY LEAD TO
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALSO INCREASE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT SLIPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE COULD HAVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THE MAIN 5H TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NE INTO IA AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...I DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES...AND POPULATED WITH HPC DATA DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS. ANOTHER 5H TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION TIMING IS THE MAIN QUESTION. NEXT FEW-SEVERAL HOURS MAY
BE THE MOST CONVECTIVE-FREE TIME AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY GIVEN
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND APPROACH OF FRONT AND UPPER WAVE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE HIT EVENING HOURS THE HARDEST AT THIS
POINT THINKING STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD PERSIST. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BRING CONDITIONS BELOW MVFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THIS DEGREE OF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-
KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

GARGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
344 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TONIGHT AND SPREAD
EAST INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE EVENING AND WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME A GREATER HAZARD AS THESE STORMS PRODUCE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. RIVER FLOODING COULD OCCUR AS WATER LEVELS RISE FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S WASHINGTON          39.79N 97.05W
04/26/2009  M1.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN LAST HOUR

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
445 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSZ011-012-262215-
BROWN-NEMAHA-
445 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NEMAHA AND BROWN COUNTIES...

THROUGH 515 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEMAHA AND BROWN COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PEA SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
SABETHA...HAMLIN...FAIRVIEW...HIAWATHA...RESERVE...ROBINSON AND IOWA
SAC AND FOX RESERVATION.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE
A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
527 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSZ022-035>037-262300-
DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-RILEY-
527 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR RILEY...GEARY...DICKINSON AND MORRIS
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 600 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF RILEY...GEARY...DICKINSON AND MORRIS COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
JUNCTION CITY...MILFORD STATE PARK...GRANDVIEW PLAZA AND OGDEN.
MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 283 AND 315 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE
A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             4 SE JUNCTION CITY      38.99N 96.78W
04/26/2009  E0.75 INCH       GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     HAIL             3 E HERINGTON           38.66N 96.89W
04/26/2009  E0.50 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC