Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1201 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06 UTC AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES MAINLY IN THE 07Z-11Z PERIOD AS THEY REGENERATE AND
PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS AND GUSTS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS WITH TSRA. CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z AND EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...

SOMEWHAT COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN
THERMAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM NEAR HJL TO LWC.  REMNANTS OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAD MADE IT INTO SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS TO BE
WASHING OUT.  ML CAPE VALUES TO AROUND 4000 J/KG ARE IN PLACE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN KS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS
TIME...BUT FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.  ADDITIONALLY PW VALUES > 1.5 INCHES COUPLED
WITH EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND SHOULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT.  NAM AND GFS BOTH
DEVELOP MCS WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER NC KS THAT ROLLS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CWA TONIGHT
BASED ON FORECAST PRECIPITATION AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND.

WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHC POP TUESDAY MORNING AS MCS SHIFTS
RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO MO. AS SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KS AND BECOMING STATIONARY IN THE
EVENING. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL
WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CAP WILL
ERODE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE STRONGER. AS CLOUDS THIN
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MCS...SHOULD SEE WARMEST
READINGS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA NEAR 90. THE BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WEAK LLVL JET DEVELOPS IN THE
EVENING...THEN VEERS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY CARRY A LOW POP IN THE
EVENING.

ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...THEN EVEN WARMER ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AS LLVL FLOW VEERS EVEN MORE
AND ALLOWS VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS TO ADVECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL INCREASE HIGHS MORE THROUGH THE 90S...WARMEST SOUTHWEST CWA.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL REAMPLIFY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS BY
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S. WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY DRY...BUT SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE TRIES TO OCCUR
AFTER MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT TO INSERT POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY
FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1212 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-161715-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1212 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS
AND FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS PASS.

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FROM
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7AM FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND GST     WESTPHALIA              38.18N 95.49W
06/15/2009  E60 MPH          ANDERSON           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND SPEED ESTIMATED. DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF
            WESTPHAILA WITH POWER LINES DOWN ON CARS AND SOME TREES
            BLOWN DOWN.

&&

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1153 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

KSZ058-160530-
COFFEY-
1153 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR COFFEY COUNTY...

THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COFFEY COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
GRIDLEY...JOHN REDMOND RESERVOIR AND BURLINGTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

BLAIR

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