Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00 UTC AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW END VFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED PRIOR TO CONVECTION ARRIVAL.
EVENTUALLY...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY TEMPO PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BEGINNING 02Z TO 04Z AT TAF SITES AS CURRENT AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MATERIALIZES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY
MID MORNING AT TAF SITES BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE/CONVECTION. BLAIR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...

SOMEWHAT COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN
THERMAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM NEAR HJL TO LWC.  REMNANTS OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAD MADE IT INTO SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS TO BE
WASHING OUT.  ML CAPE VALUES TO AROUND 4000 J/KG ARE IN PLACE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN KS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS
TIME...BUT FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.  ADDITIONALLY PW VALUES > 1.5 INCHES COUPLED
WITH EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND SHOULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT.  NAM AND GFS BOTH
DEVELOP MCS WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER NC KS THAT ROLLS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CWA TONIGHT
BASED ON FORECAST PRECIPITATION AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND.

WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHC POP TUESDAY MORNING AS MCS SHIFTS
RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO MO. AS SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KS AND BECOMING STATIONARY IN THE
EVENING. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL
WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CAP WILL
ERODE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE STRONGER. AS CLOUDS THIN
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MCS...SHOULD SEE WARMEST
READINGS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA NEAR 90. THE BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WEAK LLVL JET DEVELOPS IN THE
EVENING...THEN VEERS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY CARRY A LOW POP IN THE
EVENING.

ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...THEN EVEN WARMER ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AS LLVL FLOW VEERS EVEN MORE
AND ALLOWS VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS TO ADVECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL INCREASE HIGHS MORE THROUGH THE 90S...WARMEST SOUTHWEST CWA.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL REAMPLIFY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS BY
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S. WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY DRY...BUT SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE TRIES TO OCCUR
AFTER MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT TO INSERT POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION...

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ON AVIATION SIDE ARE WHEN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL AGAIN OCCUR...AND WHETHER WE WILL HAVE IFR CIGS TUESDAY
MORNING. SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CNK TO SOUTH OF OJC. AIRMASS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THAT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL BE TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS/MCS...SURFACE HEATING ALONG/NEAR LEFTOVER BOUNDARY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR THE TAFS...HAVE CONCENTRATED ON OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT MAY NEED TO RECONSIDER AFTER SEEING
WHERE BOUNDARY SETS UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO INDICATE EITHER
IFR OR MVFR CIGS OVER ERN KS FOLLOWING MCS AND HAVE GONE ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE KEEPING THEM MVFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE MORNING. 60

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
549 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162300-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
549 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIALLY ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL KS AND MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL AS A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOS. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A LARGE CLUSTER AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THE
STORMS. FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR IF STORMS MOVE SLOWLY OR MOVE
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS CONTINUOUSLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

WOLTERS

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