Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
621 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 0Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO ONSET OF WIND
SHIFT AND PRECIP. THINK MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS MAIN BOUNDARY
REMAINING NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE BEING AIDED IN A PUSH TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY. WILL BRING IN FROPA IN MID AFTERNOON WITH CB AND
VCTS AT THIS TIME. 67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009/

DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
WERE DIGGING EAST AND SOUTH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WAS
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NM AND SOUTHWEST CO THIS AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST IA...WEST AND SOUTHWEST
TO NEBRASKA CITY...NE THEN WEST AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF HILL
CITY...KS...THEN SOUTHWEST INTO A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS THE OK PNHDL.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOWER TO MID 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH...AT
19Z MHK AND SLN HAVE MIXED OUT A BIT AS DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE UPPER 50S. SFC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NE...SOUTHWEST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE PULSE STORMS DUE TO THE WEAK
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE MAY
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SBCAPE
VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG MAY PROVIDE FOR POSSIBLE PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
I CAN NOT RULE OUT THE CAP BREAKING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED PULSE STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NE BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CAUSE AN MCV TO DEVELOP. THE NAM
MODEL SHOWS AN MCV DEVELOPING DUE TO THE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION AND
TRACKING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST
NE LATER TONIGHT. THE LIFT AHEAD OF AN MCV COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

TUESDAY...A 5H TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CO WILL ALSO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON IS
FORECASTED TO BE ALONG A HIAWATHA TO MHK TO CARLTON LINE. THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK WITH ONLY 15 TO 20 KTS
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THOUGH SBCAPE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 1500-2000
J/KG. THERE MAY BE SOME PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW
WINDS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. I KEPT THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES COOLER IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...SINCE FROPA MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON
HOURS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80 INTO THE LOWER 80S. IF WE SEE MORE
ISOLATION IN THE WARM SECTOR THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

GARGAN

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE THE LINE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...DRY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL MOVE IN AND COOL THINGS OFF A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY AND WARM
THINGS BACK UP FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS CONTINENTAL CANADA WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CWA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERLY COUNTIES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT A WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...HOWEVER A CUTOFF LOW
WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE ON
SHORE...AND DISPLACE THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN DURING THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WOULD COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM FOR ANY UPDATES TO POPS. WAA DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER FROM THE PRE-WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS
MAY MITIGATE STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
831 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             3 NNW BELLEVILLE        39.86N 97.65W
06/01/2009  E0.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

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