Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 030042
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
742 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

KSC111-030051-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-090603T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LYON-
742 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
LYON COUNTY...

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 134.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 143.

AT 741 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NO 
LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LAT...LON 3817 9636 3850 9636 3850 9595 3839 9594
      3816 9596 3816 9635

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH A
TROF MOVING THROUGH IT APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LOW
WAS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING...AND WAS INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT APPEARS
LAY FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR PRATT NORTHEAST TO EMPORIA AND
INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH MORE VIGOROUS
STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

INSTABILITY...THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY...WITH AGAIN WEAK
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A MINOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT NEAR THE FRONT INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THOUGH OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT STORMS MAY
SHOVE IT SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET. MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION NEAREST IT ALONG WITH
MORNING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...FOCUSING PRECIPITATION WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-INDUCED VORACITY MAXIMA. THE APPROACH
OF THE TROF SHOULD KEEP MID/LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTACT OVER THE
BOUNDARY INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS FOR A CONTINUED/PERSISTENT
ELEVATED CONVECTION REGIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST A CONTINUED CONCERN FOR
FLOODING. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING IS NOT HIGH...WILL MAINTAIN
THE WATCH AS-IS. UPPER LOWS PROGRESSION INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AND END TO PRECIPITATION BY LATE
MORNING WITH COOL AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND.

65

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN KS. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE 5H RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE PLAINS. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA INTO NV. THE NAM MODELS
SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHICH CAUSES A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS HAS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT FORECASTS THE MCS TO TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NE. I PLACED IN 20 POPS JUST IN CASE THE NAM
SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE MORE ACCURATE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHEAR PIECES OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN 5H TROUGH OFF...AND LIFTS EACH PIECE NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
500MB WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A 40
TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 5H JET MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OF KS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW THE WESTERN GULF NOT
QUITE REACHING EQUILIBRIUM...THUS ONLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE MAY
RETURN AHEAD OF THE 5H TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS
INTO THE CWA. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DEEP MOISTURE RETURN. WE MAY FINALLY
SEE THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS ON
MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF THE
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE DOES ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
THEN THE CAPE MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ATTM...MONDAY
AFTERNOON  MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. HIGHS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND MAY REACH INTO
THE LOWER 90S...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN TWO MAIN AREAS...BOTH ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND ARE IN AND NEAR THE AERODROMES AT
THIS TIME. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF TS AT THE TERMINALS QUITE HIGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CONVECTION ANTICIPATED AS THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESS. MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MAY
KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT TIMING
OF IT CLEARING IS MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT.

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-032100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
353 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD ALSO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABILENE TO HOLTON...WHERE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. IN ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.