Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
254 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON. APPROACHING
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INITIATING WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS. MANY STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE ENDING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS TO THE WEST
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROF AXIS LIFTS OUT OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. EMANUEL

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL YIELD QUIETER
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIVERGE ON FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WEAK
FLOW. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND TYPICAL DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
MLS

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FEATURES. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY
BEFORE COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY. EK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
LIKELY TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL START TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
BRIEF INTRUSIONS INTO MVFR AND IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
AFTER THE STORMS PASS...SOME HIGHER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY REVERT TO IFR CONDITIONS. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  79  49  67 /  70  20  50  50
CTB  48  74  45  67 /  70  20  20  20
HLN  52  78  52  65 /  60  30  60  50
BZN  50  84  50  71 /  40  20  40  40
WEY  40  71  40  67 /  40  10  20  20
DLN  47  76  48  65 /  20  20  40  40
HVR  50  80  49  70 /  70  20  40  40
LWT  48  74  47  64 /  70  30  60  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ008>015-044>055.

&&

SHORT TERM...EMANUEL
LONG TERM...MLS/EK
AVIATION...SUK

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
737 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2009

MTZ008>015-044>055-071345-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-
CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
737 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...TRIGGERING NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HAIL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LESS OVER BEAVERHEAD...MADISON...AND GALLATIN COUNTIES.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REACH CUT BANK BY MID-
AFTERNOON...GREAT FALLS AND LEWISTOWN AND BOZEMAN BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND HAVRE BY EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AT CUT BANK AND GREAT FALLS AND BOZEMAN
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...LEWISTOWN BY MID-EVENING AND HAVRE BY
MIDNIGHT. ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD KEEP TRACK OF CONDITIONS VIA
TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADIO
AND WEB SITES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SAFELY OBSERVE AND PROVIDE
TIMELY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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