Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
424 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...
ONGOING SVR WX/HVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS WC TX AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS GENERATING
NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CWA. SVR WATCH 197 IN EFFECT UNTIL
10AM FOR ENTIRE CWA. WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD UNTIL 18Z/1PM FOR ALL OF
CWA...EXCEPT BIG COUNTRY DUE TO PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL
EXPECTED FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH SRN (I-10) AREAS ARE RAIN FREE AT THIS
TIME...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING NE OUT OF NE MEX INTO THE FCST AREA INTO MIDDAY THROUGH THE
SW UPPER FLOW. BY TONIGHT MAIN SURGE OF ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE NE OF FCST AREA...BUT COULD STILL HAVE
SOME LINGERING STORMS ACROSS ERN 1/3 OF AREA MAINLY NE OF A LINE
FROM SWEETWATER TO MASON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE
AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL HINDER NORMAL DIURNAL HEATING.

11

.LONG TERM...
NOT LOOKING LIKE SFC FRONT WILL MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY AS MODELS INDICATING FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NRN REACHES
OF BIG COUNTRY. SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY ON S SIDE OF FRONT.
BEST CHANCES FOR TUE/TUE NT WILL BE NRN HALF OF CWA CLOSER TO SFC
FEATURE. STILL LOOKING TO MOVE BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO TX
PANHANDLE AND OK BY WED MORNING. WILL HAVE TSTM ACTIVITY TAPERING
DOWN AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS WITH MAIN PACIFIC LOW STILL TRENDING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS GIVING WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
FRI. THIS WILL NOT HELP SFC FRONT TO RUSH THROUGH AREA AND THE
PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW FRI INTO SAT AND MOST LIKELY STALL OUT FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...WITH ONLY MINIMAL PROGRESS UNTIL THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR FRI WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SAT AS FRONT FINALLY MAKES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS
INTO THE REGION.

NOT MUCH DIURNAL RANGE AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED TO HERE FOR MON THRU
WED AS EXTRA CLOUD COVER/RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP READINGS LOWER
DURING THE DAY AND MODERATED OVERNIGHT. BY THU...SHOULD SEE SOME
MORE DIURNAL RANGE AS WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND LOSE SOME OF OUR
MOISTURE SOURCE TEMPORARILY. SLIGHTLY MODERATING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN HALF AS WE MOVE INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS FRONT PROGRESS INTO THE REGION.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 80  64  80  64  82 /  50  30  40  40  30
SAN ANGELO 	 84  64  83  66  84 /  40  10  30  30  20
JUNCTION 	 82  66  84  66  83 /  40  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...CROCKETT...
IRION...KIMBLE...MASON...MCCULLOCH...MENARD...RUNNELS...SAN
SABA...SCHLEICHER...STERLING...SUTTON...TOM GREEN.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
228 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-271930-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
228 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STOMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A DRYLINE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND
CONCHO VALLEY INTO THE HEARTLAND. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE.

WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ON MONDAY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF
A LINE FROM SWEETWATER TO EDEN TO JUNCTION. ON TUESDAY...THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF THIS
WEEK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1204 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXZ071-072-270600-
TOM GREEN TX-IRION TX-
1204 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR TOM GREEN
AND IRION COUNTIES...

AT 1204 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 5 MILES WEST OF KNICKERBOCKER...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF MERTZON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  US-67 NEAR THE IRION-TOM GREEN COUNTY LINE BY 1210 AM CDT
  SAN ANGELO BY 1230 AM CDT
  WALL BY 1245 AM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1256 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     HAIL             SAN ANGELO              31.45N 100.45W
04/27/2009  E0.75 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PENNY HAIL AT NWS SAN ANGELO

&&

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
125 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 AM     HAIL             SAN ANGELO              31.45N 100.45W
04/27/2009  E0.88 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL HAIL AT NWS SAN ANGELO

&&

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
224 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXZ072-073-270830-
TOM GREEN TX-CONCHO TX-
224 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 AM CDT FOR TOM GREEN
AND CONCHO COUNTIES...

AT 224 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OVER VANCOURT...OR ABOUT 18 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAINT ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VICK BY 230 AM CDT
  EOLA AND MERETA BY 235 AM CDT
  THE INTERSECTION OF US-83 AND RANCH ROAD 765 BY 250 AM CDT
  PAINT ROCK BY 255 AM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
307 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     HAIL             STERLING CITY           31.84N 100.99W
04/27/2009  E0.88 INCH       STERLING           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
438 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXZ154-155-271030-
MCCULLOCH TX-SAN SABA TX-
438 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 AM CDT FOR MCCULLOCH
AND SAN SABA COUNTIES...

AT 434 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROCHELLE...OR
ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRADY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. OTHER
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRADY AND 5
MILES NORTH OF ALGERITA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PLACID AND US-190 NEAR THE MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA COUNTY LINE BY 445 AM
  CDT
  HALL BY 450 AM CDT
  MERCURY BY 455 AM CDT
  MILBURN BY 500 AM CDT
  ELM GROVE AND SKEETERVILLE BY 505 AM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
MONDAY MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.