Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
302 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THREE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

A TRANSITORY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
ALL INGREDIENTS ARE LINING UP FOR WET AND STORMY CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

STARTING WITH TONIGHT...A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE CHARLES TO BATON
ROUGE LOUISIANA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT MAY
BE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. LINEAR CONVECTION
HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. ORIGINALLY
INITIATING AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...THESE STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN
COVERAGE AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO AFFECT TYLER AND LONGVIEW.
DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOS...AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES COVER AREAS WEST OF THE CWA
AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE INCREASED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO SERVE AS AN INITIATOR
FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALL CONCLUDE BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE THIRD AND FINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
PROGGED TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON FRIDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS A MID LEVEL LOW BARRELS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A 100+
KT ASSOCIATED JET...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO PROMOTE
THE STRONGEST STORMS OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. IN THE EVENT OF TRAINING STORMS...PONDING OF
ROADWAYS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

BEYOND FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS EJECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND SHOULD
TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT.  IN RESPONSE...AREA RADARS SHOW THAT
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N TX THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME GR.

EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS SE OK/E TX TERMINALS
THROUGH 26/0000 UTC...THEN ACROSS S AR/N LA AIRPORTS BETWEEN
26/0000-0300 UTC.  FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR
DUE TO LOW CIGS IN VICINITY OF SHRA/TSRA.  THE LOW FLIGHT
CATEGORIES SHOULD THEN SPREAD N/E ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WITH THE
CONVECTION.  MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE FRONT STARTS LIFTING N IN EARNEST TOWARD 26/1800
UTC.

AFTER THIS ROUND...I WILL CONTINUE THE RELATIVELY DRY TREND IN THE
TAFS THROUGH 27/0000 UTC.  THE GREATEST RISK OF ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
WILL LIKELY COME AFTER THE END OF THE UPCOMING TAF PACKAGE.  /BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  77  60  74  46 /  90  40  70  70  60
MLU  53  77  58  78  50 /  90  40  70  70  60
DEQ  44  71  55  64  40 /  90  30  70  70  40
TXK  49  74  57  69  45 /  90  30  70  70  60
ELD  50  74  58  73  45 /  90  30  70  70  60
TYR  54  77  61  75  42 /  90  60  70  70  40
GGG  54  76  59  74  44 /  90  60  70  70  40
LFK  59  81  63  78  41 /  90  70  70  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-261100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1151 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ARE EXPECTED
TO PUSH INTO FAR EAST TEXAS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A THREAT
AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDED
PERIODS OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS
ON THURSDAY...MOVING INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND CROSS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST POTENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO
AFFECT THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS SPRING. THE THREAT EXISTS FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

05

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
827 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             15 N MINDEN             32.83N 93.28W
03/25/2009  M1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

ASTEVENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
836 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRYCELAND               32.44N 92.99W
03/25/2009                   BIENVILLE          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 TREES DOWN

0827 PM     HAIL             2 N RUSTON              32.56N 92.64W
03/25/2009  M0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            LA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

ASTEVENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
838 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANY                    31.57N 93.47W
03/25/2009                   SABINE             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

ASTEVENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
842 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUSTON                  32.53N 92.64W
03/25/2009                   LINCOLN            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY.

&&

ASTEVENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
855 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CENTER                  31.79N 94.18W
03/25/2009                   SHELBY             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS SHELBY COUNTY.

&&

ASTEVENS