Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1050 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATING SWWD INTO
CENTRAL AND NRN LA...AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH
CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE CONTINUING ITS BUILD TO THE E
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY END ANY REMAINING CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE
TO CONTINUE ON THEIR SWWD TRACK. THUS WILL RAISE POPS AND LOWER
MAX TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND NRN LA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL
TWEAK SKY GRIDS A BIT. OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST
AS IS. /12/

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING TRYING TO HANG ON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND INTO ADJACENT SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. STARTING TO
SO SOME IMPROVEMENT SO WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THE FOG AND LOWER
CEILINGS WITH AMENDMENTS UNTIL THE NEW TAF ISSUANCE TIME. BY 06/18Z
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FOG AND IFR TO BE GONE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE MVFR OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN WAKE OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DELTA
REGION THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA ALONG AND NEAR A MONROE/KMLU TO NATCHITOCHES/KIER
LINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS/OR CB IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR KMLU.
MAY ALSO HAVE TO MENTION FOR KLFK TOO WITH DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR MOST
TERMINAL SITES...BUT MAY CARRY SOME MORNING FOG/BR AROUND 07/10Z TO
07/13Z FOR KELD...KMLU...KTXK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  97  74  96 /  20  10   0   0  10
MLU  95  71  97  72  96 /  40  10   0   0  10
DEQ  95  72  96  73  96 /  20  10   0   0  10
TXK  95  73  96  75  96 /  20  10   0   0  10
ELD  94  70  96  72  96 /  20   0   0   0  10
TYR  97  75  97  76  96 /  20  10   0   0  10
GGG  96  74  97  73  97 /  20  10  10   0  10
LFK  97  74  97  73  97 /  20  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

12/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>004-010-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071215-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-DE SOTO-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1123 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION INTERACTS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO ALLOW
FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES TODAY. INDIVIDUALS
WORKING OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEMSELVES
FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO APPROACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY.
INDIVIDUALS WORKING OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LAZ005-006-011>014-017>022-071215-
LINCOLN-UNION LA-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-
1123 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO APPROACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY.
INDIVIDUALS WORKING OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

12