Severe Thunderstorm Warning 294, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1050 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATING SWWD INTO
CENTRAL AND NRN LA...AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH
CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE CONTINUING ITS BUILD TO THE E
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY END ANY REMAINING CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE
TO CONTINUE ON THEIR SWWD TRACK. THUS WILL RAISE POPS AND LOWER
MAX TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND NRN LA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL
TWEAK SKY GRIDS A BIT. OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST
AS IS. /12/

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING TRYING TO HANG ON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND INTO ADJACENT SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. STARTING TO
SO SOME IMPROVEMENT SO WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THE FOG AND LOWER
CEILINGS WITH AMENDMENTS UNTIL THE NEW TAF ISSUANCE TIME. BY 06/18Z
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FOG AND IFR TO BE GONE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE MVFR OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN WAKE OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DELTA
REGION THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA ALONG AND NEAR A MONROE/KMLU TO NATCHITOCHES/KIER
LINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS/OR CB IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR KMLU.
MAY ALSO HAVE TO MENTION FOR KLFK TOO WITH DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR MOST
TERMINAL SITES...BUT MAY CARRY SOME MORNING FOG/BR AROUND 07/10Z TO
07/13Z FOR KELD...KMLU...KTXK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  97  74  96 /  20  10   0   0  10
MLU  95  71  97  72  96 /  40  10   0   0  10
DEQ  95  72  96  73  96 /  20  10   0   0  10
TXK  95  73  96  75  96 /  20  10   0   0  10
ELD  94  70  96  72  96 /  20   0   0   0  10
TYR  97  75  97  76  96 /  20  10   0   0  10
GGG  96  74  97  73  97 /  20  10  10   0  10
LFK  97  74  97  73  97 /  20  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

12/06

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