Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
349 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION NOW ALONG A CAMDEN AR...TO CLEBURN
TX LINE. WV SAT SHOWS CONVECTION OVER SE OK AND SW AR RIDING ON A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS SPREAD OUT
AND WEAKENED A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW SCANS...BUT SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY
MOVE INTO MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE EWD ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACCOMPANYING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
SHV RADAR ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WHERE RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN TODAY. CONSIDERING THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM
RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE MONTH AND THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
ALONG THE SAME AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING...WILL ISSUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY. GFS
INDICATES THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS RIDGE OVER MEXICO SLIDES WWD...AND
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NWLY. NAM IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH TO A LESSER
EXTENT. THAT BEING SAID...FFA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY IF MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND. TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE TRICKY AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND. GFS/NAM FRONTAL
PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO WHEN
CONSIDERING TEMPS.

UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER WILL FINALLY PUSH THE
BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH...BUT NOT FOR LONG. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EWD...TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...AND RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
RETURN.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD...AND ANY DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW LOOK TO STAY N OF THE REGION. /12/

&&

.AVIATION...
SCTD TSTMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS.  EXPECT LOWERING OF CEILING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS IT TYPICAL
FOR OVERNIGHT.  BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT WITH TYPICAL SCTD CUMULUS TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING AND EARLY
SUMMER. /VIII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  80  65  76  64 /  50  40  40  40  30
MLU  66  79  64  76  59 /  50  40  40  40  30
DEQ  58  71  59  71  58 /  60  70  60  60  50
TXK  60  72  60  71  59 /  60  70  50  60  50
ELD  63  73  60  72  59 /  60  70  50  60  50
TYR  65  80  64  75  63 /  50  40  40  40  30
GGG  65  80  64  75  64 /  50  40  40  40  30
LFK  70  87  69  85  68 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

12/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151-101200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-
BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-
GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
1146 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND NORTH OF I 20...WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIES. THE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO JUST SOUTH OF I 20 AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY DIPS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...
CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE MONTH.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LAZ017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-101200-
SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-NACOGDOCHES-
SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1146 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND GST     STAMPS                  33.36N 93.50W
05/09/2009  E60 MPH          LAFAYETTE          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
336 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E FULTON              33.61N 93.78W
05/09/2009                   HEMPSTEAD          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED ALONG I-30 FROM MM 24 TO MM 26.

&&

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
338 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARLAND                 33.36N 93.71W
05/09/2009                   MILLER             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED.

&&

CROSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

ARZ072-073-092145-
COLUMBIA-UNION-
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
     UNION...
IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     COLUMBIA...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     ATLANTA...CALION...EL DORADO...EMERSON...JUNCTION CITY...
     LAWSON...LISBON...MACEDONIA...MAGNOLIA...MCNEIL...MOUNT HOLLY...
     NORPHLET...SMACKOVER...SMITHLAND...VILLAGE...WALDO...WELCOME AND
     WESSON...

AT 344 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF
STEPHENS TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MACEDONIA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. SHOULD THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED.

15

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