Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1108 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ALONG A LINE FROM TERRELL
TX...TO JUST NORTH OF TEXARKANA AR...TO DUMAS AR. CONVECTION IS
ONGOING OVER SSE OK BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE OVERRUNNING IS TAKING
PLACE. ALSO...A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OK CAN
BE SEEN IN WV SAT. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO AFFECT MAINLY NRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...CAN/T RULE OUT THESE STORMS REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. AS
FAR AS HEAVY RAINFALL IS CONCERNED...WILL DELAY CONSIDERATION FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE NRN COUNTIES TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY CRAWLS SWD
TODAY. CHANGES TO THE GRIDS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM...WITH ONLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS/POPS/WINDS NECESSARY. /12/

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  SOME SCTD TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...BUT
WILL NOT MENTION ANY IN THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
VICINITY REMARKS. /VIII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  66  80  65  76 /  40  50  40  40  50
MLU  88  66  79  64  76 /  30  50  40  40  50
DEQ  77  58  71  59  71 /  60  70  70  60  60
TXK  81  60  72  60  71 /  50  60  60  50  60
ELD  84  63  73  60  72 /  50  60  60  50  60
TYR  85  65  80  64  75 /  50  50  40  40  50
GGG  86  65  80  64  75 /  50  50  40  40  50
LFK  89  70  87  69  85 /  20  20  30  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

12/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151-101200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-
BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-
GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
1146 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND NORTH OF I 20...WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIES. THE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO JUST SOUTH OF I 20 AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY DIPS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...
CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE MONTH.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LAZ017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-101200-
SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-NACOGDOCHES-
SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1146 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
122 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             10 NE DETROIT           33.76N 95.14W
05/09/2009  M1.75 INCH       RED RIVER          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF REPORT FROM THE MANCHESTER COMMUNITY.

&&

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
138 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 E WRIGHT CITY         34.06N 94.89W
05/09/2009                   MCCURTAIN          OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED IN THE GOLDEN COMMUNITY. SHERIFF REPORT.

&&

CROSS

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