River Flood Warning 138, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AS UPPER TROF TO WEST DEEPENS...SQUALL LINE AND SFC FRONT
CURRENTLY REMAINS WEST OF DFW METROPLEX...AND WILL BE DELAYED INTO
CWA BY SVRL HOURS. AS A RESULT...HAVE REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY TODAY...
KEEPING NORTHCENTRAL LA AND SOUTHCENTRAL AR IN CHANCE CATEGORY
THRU 18Z...AND KEEP LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE THRU AFTN. VERY STRONG
LOW LVL JET OF 50 TO 60 KTS WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE
ATMOSPHERE...TELLTALE STREAMING BANDS OF CONVECTION INCREASING
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS STRONG JET...ALONG WITH SE SFC
WINDS...CONTRIBUTING TO 12Z SOUNDING HELICITIES EXCEEDING VALUES
OF 500 AT SHV...FTW...OUN AND LZK. MORE INFO AVAILABLE WITH
SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING RELEASES. SVR THREAT WITH PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT
ENHANCED FOR AFTN HOURS. FLOODING MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT AS LOW LVL
WINDS REDUCE BY EVENING...SLOW MOVG SQUALL LINE CONTAINING VERY
HEAVY RAIN WEST OF DFW METRO...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH THIS
STRONG GULF FEED. ALSO RAISED AFTN TEMPS TO MAINLY UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT TEMP TRENDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...EVEN
IN ABSENCE OF BREAKS IN OVERCAST. 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES SMALL SFC
BASED INVERSION...IF INVERSION BREAKS THIS AFTN...BOTH
CONVECTION...AND SFC WINDS...EXPECTED TO SUDDENLY INTENSIFY./VII/

&&

.AVIATION...

THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS POSSIBLE STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA...AS WINDS GET UP TO 50 KTS IN THE FIRST 2000 FEET. IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL  CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
CREATING WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH FROPA. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN COMMON IN THE
18Z TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AFTER
06Z WHERE THE FRONT WILL INITIATE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. /11/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  55  60  45  67 /  70 100 100  40  20
MLU  79  62  65  46  63 /  60 100 100  60  40
DEQ  77  54  58  42  62 /  70 100  60  20  10
TXK  76  55  60  43  62 /  70 100  80  40  20
ELD  75  55  60  43  62 /  60 100 100  40  20
TYR  81  52  58  44  66 /  70 100  60  20  10
GGG  82  54  59  42  66 /  70 100  80  40  10
LFK  84  56  64  43  69 /  70 100 100  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-059-070.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-011-017-018.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

07/07

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