Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES...AND A FOG ADVISORY MAY BE IN ORDER.  THE EASTERN
OZARKS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBSERVATIONS IN THIS REGION.
AREAS NEAR LAKES...SUCH AS TABLE ROCK...LAKE OF THE OZARKS...AND
STOCKTON WILL ALSO HAVE BETTER CHANCES AT LOWER VISIBILITIES AS WELL.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE A BEE LINE FOR
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE OZARKS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  MIXED LAYER CAPES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW MAGNITUDES OF WIND SHEAR...THE FREQUENCY AND
INTENSITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MITIGATED TO AN EXTENT.
MARGINALLY SEVERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
HAZARDS.

PERHAPS THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH TONIGHTS STORMS COULD BE
FLASH FLOODING.  SOIL CONDITIONS ARE MOIST AND EVEN SATURATED IN
SOME AREAS.  MEANWHILE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF TONIGHTS
FRONT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.  ANY TRAINING OR SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FLOODING IN SOME
SPOTS.  ILL BE COLLABORATING THOUGHTS ON A POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES THIS MORNING.  A LAST MINUTE CALL
PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME WILL BE MADE ON THIS POSSIBLE HEADLINE.

ITS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
TONIGHTS COLD FRONT.  ALL MODELS SUGGEST A MASSIVE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT TO REPLACE THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE
THE WRF SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING UNDER THE MID LEVEL
COLD CORE ACROSS SE KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  AS A MATTER OF
FACT...THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LIKELY POPS GOING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
AND SEVERAL SURROUNDING OFFICES...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE WRF HAS
FEEDBACK ISSUES...DEVELOPING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION APPEARS TO
BE HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC LOW BETTER THAN ALL MODELS...AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS CLOSELY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WEATHER.
THEREFORE HAVE FAVORED LOWER POPS FOR THE TUESDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME.

THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK.  THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS WITHIN THE
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATES AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH
THE DEVELOPING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE.  THIS WOULD BRING FORCING AND
INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION TOWARD THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST.
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AERODROMES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT CEILINGS
WILL LOWER WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ066-077>079-
     088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1255 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-221800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1255 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF A LINE
FROM WARSAW TO SPRINGFIELD TO BRANSON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE OZARKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY PROGRESSING EAST TOWARDS
THE OZARKS LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WEST MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT SCOTT              37.84N 94.71W
09/21/2009                   BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STREET FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF FORT
            SCOTT.

&&

CCROWE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

KSZ097-101-MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-211845-
CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-CEDAR MO-
VERNON MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
1244 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARTON...CEDAR...CHEROKEE...NORTHERN
JASPER...NORTHWESTERN DADE...SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...ST. CLAIR AND
VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 1242 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
METZ TO HORTON TO MOUNDVILLE TO 11 MILES WEST OF FAULKNER...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1251 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             FORT SCOTT              37.84N 94.71W
09/21/2009  E0.88 INCH       BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SW FORT SCOTT         37.78N 94.79W
09/21/2009  M2.85 INCH       BOURBON            KS   AWOS

            2.85IN OF RAIN BETWEEN 9AM AND 1PM AT FORT SCOTT AWOS
            SITE.

&&

CCROWE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
128 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             5 S NEVADA              37.77N 94.35W
09/21/2009  E0.50 INCH       VERNON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED DIME HAIL 5 MILES SOUTH OF
            NEVADA ON HIGHWAYN 71.

&&

CCROWE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
142 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

MOZ055-056-067-211945-
ST. CLAIR MO-BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
142 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BENTON...MORGAN AND NORTHEASTERN ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 142 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BRANDON TO 4 MILES NORTH OF ICONIUM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE COLE CAMP...LINCOLN...STOVER...VERSAILLES
AND WARSAW.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT INCLUDE LAKE OF THE
OZARKS AND TRUMAN LAKE.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
209 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 38.39N 93.33W
09/21/2009  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CCROWE