Flash Flood Warning 149, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 211622
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1122 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

KSC011-212100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0149.000000T0000Z-090921T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-
1122 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
BOURBON COUNTY...

AT 1117 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVED 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THIS MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT AROUND ONE 
TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA 
THIS MORNING. AT 1120 AM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO 
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY 
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

HIGHWAY 31 AT LITTLE OSAGE RIVER 5 MILES WEST OF FULTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 9508 3804 9506 3803 9461 3770 9462
      3768 9463 3767 9501 3768 9509

$$

WISE

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 211944
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

KSC011-212100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0149.000000T0000Z-090921T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-
244 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
BOURBON COUNTY...

AT 240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE 
THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH EARLIER PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING HAS SHIFTED TO 
THE EAST.  RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON 
HOWEVER ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY 
CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

HIGHWAY 31 AT LITTLE OSAGE RIVER 5 MILES WEST OF FULTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 9508 3804 9506 3803 9461 3770 9462
      3768 9463 3767 9501 3768 9509

$$

LINDENBERG

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 212054
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
354 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

KSC011-212101-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0149.000000T0000Z-090921T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-
354 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM CDT FOR BOURBON
COUNTY...

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA ENDING THE FLASH 
FLOOD RISK...HOWEVER RESDUIAL FLOODING MAY CONINTUE ACROSS THE 
WARNED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REPLACES 
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. IF FLOODING HAS 
BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT 
AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3799 9508 3804 9506 3803 9461 3770 9462
      3768 9463 3767 9501 3768 9509

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES...AND A FOG ADVISORY MAY BE IN ORDER.  THE EASTERN
OZARKS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBSERVATIONS IN THIS REGION.
AREAS NEAR LAKES...SUCH AS TABLE ROCK...LAKE OF THE OZARKS...AND
STOCKTON WILL ALSO HAVE BETTER CHANCES AT LOWER VISIBILITIES AS WELL.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE A BEE LINE FOR
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE OZARKS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  MIXED LAYER CAPES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW MAGNITUDES OF WIND SHEAR...THE FREQUENCY AND
INTENSITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MITIGATED TO AN EXTENT.
MARGINALLY SEVERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
HAZARDS.

PERHAPS THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH TONIGHTS STORMS COULD BE
FLASH FLOODING.  SOIL CONDITIONS ARE MOIST AND EVEN SATURATED IN
SOME AREAS.  MEANWHILE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF TONIGHTS
FRONT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.  ANY TRAINING OR SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FLOODING IN SOME
SPOTS.  ILL BE COLLABORATING THOUGHTS ON A POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES THIS MORNING.  A LAST MINUTE CALL
PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME WILL BE MADE ON THIS POSSIBLE HEADLINE.

ITS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
TONIGHTS COLD FRONT.  ALL MODELS SUGGEST A MASSIVE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT TO REPLACE THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE
THE WRF SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING UNDER THE MID LEVEL
COLD CORE ACROSS SE KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  AS A MATTER OF
FACT...THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LIKELY POPS GOING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
AND SEVERAL SURROUNDING OFFICES...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE WRF HAS
FEEDBACK ISSUES...DEVELOPING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION APPEARS TO
BE HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC LOW BETTER THAN ALL MODELS...AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS CLOSELY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WEATHER.
THEREFORE HAVE FAVORED LOWER POPS FOR THE TUESDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME.

THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK.  THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS WITHIN THE
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATES AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH
THE DEVELOPING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE.  THIS WOULD BRING FORCING AND
INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION TOWARD THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 21/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT SOME LIMITED MIXING HAS
KEPT THE TAF SITES AT WORST MVFR SO FAR. THE KBBG/BRANSON AREA HAS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IN THE NEAR TERM WITH A LAKE INFLUENCE.
WEBCAM IN BRANSON ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS JUST ACROSS THE BORDER
IN ARKANSAS CONFIRMS THAT DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING NEAR THE
AIRPORT...SO WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VIS/CIGS THERE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO EASTERN KS AND MO LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z. POST FRONTAL CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE
IFR CAT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MOZ066-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
921 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-221430-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
921 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE
FROM WARSAW TO SPRINGFIELD TO BRANSON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE OZARKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY PROGRESSING EAST TOWARDS
THE OZARKS LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WEST MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
902 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

KSZ073-211500-
BOURBON KS-
902 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BOURBON COUNTY UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

AT 903 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PETERSBURG...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT
SCOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DEVON...FORT SCOTT...FULTON...HAMMOND...
HARDING...HIATTVILLE...MAPLETON...MARMATON...PAWNEE STATION...
PETERSBURG...PORTERVILLE...REDFIELD...UNIONTOWN AND XENIA.

PEOPLE IN BOURBON COUNTY...INCLUDING UNIONTOWN...REDFIELD AND
FULTON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
932 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     HAIL             HIATTVILLE              37.72N 94.87W
09/21/2009  E1.50 INCH       BOURBON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL DENTING CARS IN HIATTVILLE.

&&

CCROWE