Severe Thunderstorm Warning 322, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH LARGER SCALE SHEAR IS
MINIMAL FOR SUPERCELLS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...OWING TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...HAS COMPENSATED.
IMPRESSIVE HIGH PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN THE RESULT
WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND AND HAIL.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN...A DECREASING TORNADO
THREAT WILL ENSUE AS THESE STORMS BECOME MORE ELEVATED. THE HAIL
AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE CONTINUING IN THE LOW LEVELS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER DECENT MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN VARY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S HAVE
BEEN COMMON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN PLACE AND HAVE EMPLOYED A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONGEST JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH THE
AREA ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. PRIMARY SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NIGHTLY RESURGENCE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THOUGH WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ENERGY
TOPPING THE RIDGE EARLY TOMORROW AS THIS MAY LEAD TO CHANCES FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 310-315K LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ACTIVE AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES BY LATE EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE...THOUGH
STILL SCATTERED IN NATURE...WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO SPRINGFIELD TO
BRANSON. LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ACTIVITY WILL LINGER AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY AFFECTING THE
EASTERN OZARKS. A DISTURBANCE SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN MCS THAT MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS WILL THIS FEATURE...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. IF
THIS SYSTEM CAN BUILD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE
WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. CONDITIONS ARE THE
EXACT LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE CAN MUSTER IF RAIN/CLOUDS LINGER FROM ACTIVITY
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...THOUGH THE GENERAL THEME WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARMEST WEST...COOLEST EAST. CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN THE EDGE OFF
TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA...BUT THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN PRONE TO REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL LET THE
NIGHT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND MAKE A
DECISION ON ANY ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EDGE TO THE EAST
AND OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING
ACROSS THE U.S. CANADA BORDER. ULTIMATELY THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
WIN OUT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY RESET THE UPPER PATTERN TO WHAT WE ARE OBSERVING
NOW...WITH RIDGING TO OUR WEST...TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND THE
MIDWEST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
PATTERN LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED LATE NEXT WEEK. OUR WARMEST DAYS
WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK LOWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LOOK TO RETURN TO
NEAR AVERAGE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE MURKY AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE SFC/LOW LEVEL FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN...THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT
WEEK.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THEREFORE WENT WITH A CB GROUP INTO SUNDAY EVENING. ONLY OTHER
IMPACT WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
800 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
800 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
  MISSOURI UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA DURING
  THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY
  RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
  THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK
  SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
  NEVADA...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO BRANSON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
  SUNDAY MORNING...BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
  AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ARE POSSIBLE.

  PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
  THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING OF THESE
  THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE
  SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  DUE TO THE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
959 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

MOZ082-097-120330-
TEXAS MO-HOWELL MO-
959 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHWESTERN HOWELL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 959 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CABOOL...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MOUNTAIN
GROVE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CABOOL...ELK CREEK AND WILLOW SPRINGS.

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1046 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     HAIL             MOUNTAIN VIEW           37.00N 91.70W
07/11/2009  E1.00 INCH       HOWELL             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1048 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE THAYER             36.59N 91.46W
07/11/2009                   OREGON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS DOWNED SEVERAL TREES IN A
            RURAL AREA ALONG HIGHWAY 19 BETWEEN ALTON AND THAYER.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1113 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEST PLAINS             36.73N 91.85W
07/11/2009  E60.00 MPH       HOWELL             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

JSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST PLAINS             36.73N 91.85W
07/11/2009                   HOWELL             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WEST PLAINS POLICE AND FIRE HEADQUARTERS RELAYED TO THE
            NWS THAT A FEW AWNINGS HAD BEEN DAMAGED FROM THUNDERSTORM
            WIND GUSTS. ALSO...SIX POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED WITHIN
            THE CITY. QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO OBSERVED.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1216 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 AM     HAIL             WEST PLAINS             36.73N 91.85W
07/12/2009  E1.00 INCH       HOWELL             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DSA