Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
931 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH LARGER SCALE SHEAR IS
MINIMAL FOR SUPERCELLS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...OWING TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...HAS COMPENSATED.
IMPRESSIVE HIGH PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN THE RESULT
WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND AND HAIL.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN...A DECREASING TORNADO
THREAT WILL ENSUE AS THESE STORMS BECOME MORE ELEVATED. THE HAIL
AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE CONTINUING IN THE LOW LEVELS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER DECENT MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN VARY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S HAVE
BEEN COMMON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN PLACE AND HAVE EMPLOYED A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONGEST JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH THE
AREA ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. PRIMARY SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NIGHTLY RESURGENCE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THOUGH WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ENERGY
TOPPING THE RIDGE EARLY TOMORROW AS THIS MAY LEAD TO CHANCES FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 310-315K LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ACTIVE AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES BY LATE EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE...THOUGH
STILL SCATTERED IN NATURE...WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO SPRINGFIELD TO
BRANSON. LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ACTIVITY WILL LINGER AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY AFFECTING THE
EASTERN OZARKS. A DISTURBANCE SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN MCS THAT MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS WILL THIS FEATURE...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. IF
THIS SYSTEM CAN BUILD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE
WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. CONDITIONS ARE THE
EXACT LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE CAN MUSTER IF RAIN/CLOUDS LINGER FROM ACTIVITY
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...THOUGH THE GENERAL THEME WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARMEST WEST...COOLEST EAST. CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN THE EDGE OFF
TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA...BUT THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN PRONE TO REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL LET THE
NIGHT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND MAKE A
DECISION ON ANY ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EDGE TO THE EAST
AND OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING
ACROSS THE U.S. CANADA BORDER. ULTIMATELY THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
WIN OUT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY RESET THE UPPER PATTERN TO WHAT WE ARE OBSERVING
NOW...WITH RIDGING TO OUR WEST...TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND THE
MIDWEST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
PATTERN LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED LATE NEXT WEEK. OUR WARMEST DAYS
WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK LOWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LOOK TO RETURN TO
NEAR AVERAGE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE MURKY AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE SFC/LOW LEVEL FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN...THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT
WEEK.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THIS WILL MISS BOTH KJLN AND
KSGF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA. INCLUDED A CB GROUP FOR NOW AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
STORMS OUT THAT FAR REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
800 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
800 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
  MISSOURI UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA DURING
  THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY
  RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
  THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK
  SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
  NEVADA...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO BRANSON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
  SUNDAY MORNING...BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
  AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ARE POSSIBLE.

  PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
  THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING OF THESE
  THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE
  SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  DUE TO THE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
751 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

MOZ082-083-120115-
TEXAS MO-DENT MO-
751 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
DENT COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 747 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF LICKING...OR 18 MILES WEST OF
SALEM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE JADWIN...LICKING AND MONTAUK.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN DENT COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LICKING...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
845 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     YUKON                   37.27N 91.85W
07/11/2009                   TEXAS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN IN YUKON.

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
846 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             EUNICE                  37.24N 91.78W
07/11/2009  E1.75 INCH       TEXAS              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL AND LARGER SIZED HAIL BEING OBSERVED IN EUNICE

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
910 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     HEAVY RAIN       STEELVILLE              37.97N 91.36W
07/11/2009  M2.50 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
922 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     HAIL             MOUNTAIN VIEW           37.00N 91.70W
07/11/2009  E1.75 INCH       HOWELL             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0915 PM     HAIL             MOUNTAIN VIEW           37.00N 91.70W
07/11/2009  E1.75 INCH       HOWELL             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GCLAYCOM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
959 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

MOZ082-097-120330-
TEXAS MO-HOWELL MO-
959 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHWESTERN HOWELL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 959 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CABOOL...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MOUNTAIN
GROVE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CABOOL...ELK CREEK AND WILLOW SPRINGS.

BARJENBRUCH