Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER DECENT MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN VARY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S HAVE
BEEN COMMON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN PLACE AND HAVE EMPLOYED A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONGEST JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH THE
AREA ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. PRIMARY SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NIGHTLY RESURGENCE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THOUGH WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ENERGY
TOPPING THE RIDGE EARLY TOMORROW AS THIS MAY LEAD TO CHANCES FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 310-315K LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ACTIVE AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES BY LATE EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE...THOUGH
STILL SCATTERED IN NATURE...WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO SPRINGFIELD TO
BRANSON. LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ACTIVITY WILL LINGER AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY AFFECTING THE
EASTERN OZARKS. A DISTURBANCE SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN MCS THAT MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS WILL THIS FEATURE...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. IF
THIS SYSTEM CAN BUILD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE
WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. CONDITIONS ARE THE
EXACT LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE CAN MUSTER IF RAIN/CLOUDS LINGER FROM ACTIVITY
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...THOUGH THE GENERAL THEME WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARMEST WEST...COOLEST EAST. CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN THE EDGE OFF
TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA...BUT THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN PRONE TO REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL LET THE
NIGHT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND MAKE A
DECISION ON ANY ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EDGE TO THE EAST
AND OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING
ACROSS THE U.S. CANADA BORDER. ULTIMATELY THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
WIN OUT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY RESET THE UPPER PATTERN TO WHAT WE ARE OBSERVING
NOW...WITH RIDGING TO OUR WEST...TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND THE
MIDWEST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
PATTERN LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED LATE NEXT WEEK. OUR WARMEST DAYS
WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK LOWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LOOK TO RETURN TO
NEAR AVERAGE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE MURKY AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE SFC/LOW LEVEL FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN...THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT
WEEK.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. DIFFICULTY LIES IN THE TIMING AND THE
LOCATION OF SUCH DEVELOPMENT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION ALONG WITH WESTERLY 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND AFTERNOON HEATING. BASED UPON
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO CARRY CB FROM
MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP ENDING AFTER SUNSET. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACK THROUGH
MISSOURI ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
  MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
  STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO
  THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
  OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
  FROM NEVADA...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO BRANSON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
  SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK
  SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
  NEVADA...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO BRANSON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
  SUNDAY MORNING...BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
  AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ARE POSSIBLE.

  PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
  THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING OF THESE
  THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE
  SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  DUE TO THE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPOTTER
  ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
516 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

MOZ057-058-070-112245-
PULASKI MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-
516 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN PULASKI...SOUTHEASTERN
MILLER AND SOUTHWESTERN MARIES COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF IBERIA...OR 14 MILES EAST OF
OSAGE BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRUMLEY...DIXON...IBERIA AND ULMAN.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT INCLUDE LAKE OF THE
OZARKS STATE PARK.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN PULASKI...SOUTHEASTERN MILLER AND SOUTHWESTERN
MARIES COUNTIES...INCLUDING IBERIA...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PERSONS ON OR NEAR LAKE OF THE OZARKS...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF
LIFE THREATENING HAZARDS TO BOATERS INCLUDING STRONG WINDS...VERY
CHOPPY WATERS...HAIL...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
POTENTIALLY BLINDING RAINS. DONT BE CAUGHT OUT ON THE WATER IN A
THUNDERSTORM...BOATERS SHOULD IMMEDIATELY SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

BARJENBRUCH