Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...

ONCE AGAIN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION OF
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC PRESSURE ADVECTION OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI.  THIS TIGHT ZONE OF BAROCLINICITY CAN BE VIEWED
ALONG THE 315 K POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SURFACE.  PARCELS CONTINUE TO
ADVECT UP THIS STEEP INCLINE AT A NEAR PERPENDICULAR
ANGLE...ALLOWING THEM TO REACH A LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION ABOVE A
THICK LAYER OF LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL
HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES TODAY.  REGARDING YESTERDAY...CLOUD COVER
CONFINED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS.  HOWEVER...JOPLIN AND THE REST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ALL APPROACHED 100 DEGREES.  TODAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AS
ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION ARE POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA COULD EXPERIENCE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...HOWEVER...THE BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE REASON FOR FOCUSING POPS OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI IS DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
315K BAROCLINIC ZONE.  MODELS SUGGEST AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS...CAUSING THE BEST LIFT OVER THE LAKE OF THE
OZARKS REGION/EASTERN OZARKS.  PULSE LIKE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY
TODAY GIVEN THE STOUT CAP THAT HAS SPREAD INTO THE OZARKS AIRMASS.

TONIGHT COULD BE ANOTHER REPEAT AS MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUMMERTIME HIGH.  HOWEVER...THE
LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT TONIGHTS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH MAY CAUSE HEAT ADVISORY
LIKE CONDITIONS OVER SE KANSAS AND PARTS OF WESTERN MISSOURI FOR
SUNDAY.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...NOT MUCH CHANGE OCCURS
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN.  THE SUMMERTIME HIGH MAINTAINS POSITION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  THIS
LEAVES OUR REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...AND IN A
FAVORABLE REGION FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ON ANY GIVEN NIGHT.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. IT IS STILL TOUGH TO TELL IF THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT KSGF.
DECIDED TO GO WITH CB GROUP FOR NOW. DID NOT INCLUDE CB GROUP FOR
KJLN AS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
DID INCLUDE WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET VEERS OVER THE AREA.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1052 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1052 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
  WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 AS A LOW LEVEL JET
  INTERACTS WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ENOUGH WIND SHEAR EXISTS
  FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL
  TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
  POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
  THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH EXACT TIMING OF THESE
  THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
  AFTERNOON FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN