Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A 700 MB RIDGE
AXIS THAT WAS POSITIONED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UP THROUGH THE LAKE
OF THE OZARKS REGION.  SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORM INGREDIENTS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS TODAY.  0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPES
HAVE EXCEEDED 3000J/KG...WHILE PWATS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.60
INCHES.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ALONG THE 700 RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS.

HEAT INDEX READINGS ACROSS THE CWA WERE LOWER TODAY.  THE HIGHEST
READINGS CONTINUED TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR WARSAW.
THE 2PM READING FROM WARSAW WAS MEASURED AT 113 DEGREES...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OVER OSCEOLA...NEVADA...AND FORT SCOTT.  THE
REST OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI RANGED FROM 98 TO 108 DEGREES.

I HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO MAKE THE CALL ON
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES.  THEREFORE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND
HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM TONIGHT.  THERE ARE TWO REASONS
WHY IVE DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND THE HEAT HEADLINES ON THIS SHIFT.
FIRST OF ALL...MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU FAILED TO VERIFY THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON.  ALSO...THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE THE
OZARKS REGION COULD BE IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NOCTURNAL AND MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.

CLOUD DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW COULD HAVE A COOLING EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES.  THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT COULD IMPACT THE
REGION DEVELOP TONIGHT SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OR NORTHWEST MISSOURI. CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL
EXPERIENCE THE BEST CHANCES AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SUMMERTIME HIGH SLIGHTLY
EXPANDS BACK INTO THE OZARKS REGION WHICH SHOULD CONFINE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORN BELT OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND
ILLINOIS.  THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW MOVING INTO THE CWA CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HEAT INTO THE
90S...AND ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST...ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO SPREAD THROUGH
ALL OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

SATURDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD TEMPORARILY END THE HEAT WAVE FOR
A FEW DAYS.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SUMMERTIME HIGH
WILL DAMPEN OUT AND SHIFT BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  NORTHWEST
FLOW COMMENCES OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO
LESS HUMIDITY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...OUTFLOWS ALL OVER THE OZARKS THIS EVENING FROM
THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION. ONE OUTFLOW JUST PUSHED THROUGH SGF
WITH SOME CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. STORMS ARE SPLITTING AND MAY
NOT MAKE IT INTO SGF. FOR NOW WILL THROW IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR SGF
THROUGH 01Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING VIS DOWN TO 2SM AND CIGS
DOWN TO 2500 FEET. REMAINDER OF NIGHT EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF MCS UP IN
NORTHWEST MISSOURI FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE CONVECTION.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ057-058-070-
     071-079>083-089>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055-
     056-066>069-077-078-088.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1252 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1252 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
CENTRAL MISSOURI PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S EACH AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 110
DEGREES. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION ACROSS THE OZARKS. HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
439 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

MOZ103-242215-
STONE MO-
439 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN STONE COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

AT 439 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HURLEY...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
HIGHLANDVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

HATCH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
501 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

MOZ080-090-091-242230-
GREENE MO-WEBSTER MO-DALLAS MO-
501 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN GREENE...NORTHERN
WEBSTER AND SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELKLAND...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MARSHFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BASSVILLE...CHARITY...ELKLAND...FAIR
GROVE...MARCH...MARSHFIELD...NIANGUA...NORTHVIEW...OLIVE...RADER AND
STRAFFORD.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 86 AND 109 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED
BY THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN GREENE...NORTHERN WEBSTER AND SOUTHERN DALLAS
COUNTIES...INCLUDING MARSHFIELD...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

MOZ079-090-242245-
GREENE MO-POLK MO-
522 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN GREENE AND SOUTHWESTERN
POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 522 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SACVILLE TO EBENEZER
TO STRAFFORD...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

MOZ090-242330-
GREENE MO-
602 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 600 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAVE SPRINGS...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF
REPUBLIC...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

HATCH