Severe Thunderstorm Warning 290, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A 700 MB RIDGE
AXIS THAT WAS POSITIONED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UP THROUGH THE LAKE
OF THE OZARKS REGION.  SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORM INGREDIENTS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS TODAY.  0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPES
HAVE EXCEEDED 3000J/KG...WHILE PWATS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.60
INCHES.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ALONG THE 700 RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS.

HEAT INDEX READINGS ACROSS THE CWA WERE LOWER TODAY.  THE HIGHEST
READINGS CONTINUED TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR WARSAW.
THE 2PM READING FROM WARSAW WAS MEASURED AT 113 DEGREES...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OVER OSCEOLA...NEVADA...AND FORT SCOTT.  THE
REST OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI RANGED FROM 98 TO 108 DEGREES.

I HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO MAKE THE CALL ON
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES.  THEREFORE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND
HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM TONIGHT.  THERE ARE TWO REASONS
WHY IVE DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND THE HEAT HEADLINES ON THIS SHIFT.
FIRST OF ALL...MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU FAILED TO VERIFY THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON.  ALSO...THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE THE
OZARKS REGION COULD BE IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NOCTURNAL AND MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.

CLOUD DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW COULD HAVE A COOLING EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES.  THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT COULD IMPACT THE
REGION DEVELOP TONIGHT SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OR NORTHWEST MISSOURI. CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL
EXPERIENCE THE BEST CHANCES AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SUMMERTIME HIGH SLIGHTLY
EXPANDS BACK INTO THE OZARKS REGION WHICH SHOULD CONFINE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORN BELT OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND
ILLINOIS.  THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW MOVING INTO THE CWA CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HEAT INTO THE
90S...AND ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST...ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO SPREAD THROUGH
ALL OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

SATURDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD TEMPORARILY END THE HEAT WAVE FOR
A FEW DAYS.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SUMMERTIME HIGH
WILL DAMPEN OUT AND SHIFT BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  NORTHWEST
FLOW COMMENCES OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO
LESS HUMIDITY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR BOTH THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST EXACTLY
WHERE A STORM COULD DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM EARLIER STORMS AND AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL WAVE
WHICH WILL PUSH INTRO THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND MAKE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE
EXPECTED OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ057-058-070-
     071-079>083-089>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055-
     056-066>069-077-078-088.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1252 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1252 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
CENTRAL MISSOURI PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S EACH AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 110
DEGREES. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION ACROSS THE OZARKS. HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

MOZ077-242030-
BARTON MO-
301 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL BARTON COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

AT 258 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NASHVILLE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LAMAR...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE SPRINGFIELD        37.17N 93.25W
06/24/2009                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEAR GRAND AND GLENSTONE

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LINN CREEK              38.04N 92.71W
06/24/2009                   CAMDEN             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW LAKE OZARK         38.22N 92.66W
06/24/2009                   MILLER             MO   PUBLIC

            TREE BRANCHES ON ROOF. PEA SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUNRISE BEACH           38.18N 92.78W
06/24/2009                   CAMDEN             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES REPORTED DOWN IN SUNRISE BEACH

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E SPRINGFIELD         37.20N 93.23W
06/24/2009                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EAST SIDE OF OAK GROVE AND GRAND AVENUE FLOODED

&&

GCLAYCOM