Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE MESOSCALE SITUATION STILL UNFOLDING.
UPDRAFTS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT DOWN TREND IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN WHERE
JUICY SURFACE PARCELS CAN STILL BE INGESTED. FOR ALL INTENTS AND
PURPOSES...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN QUESTION FOLLOWS A WAVY LINE
ROUGHLY FROM COLUMBUS THROUGH NIXA...AND INTO EMINENCE. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS STABALIZED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE...TO
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE WARM FRONT HAS SURGED BACK NORTH IN THIS
AREA WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...AND THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
LIKELY TO PUSH BACK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND MAY REINTRODUCE
A TORNADIC THREAT WHERE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED.

IN TERMS OF FLOODING...SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED IMPRESSIVE
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. MUCH OF THIS FELL RAPIDLY WITH REPORTS
OF 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR AND GREATER. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
OBVIOUSLY AGGREVATE THIS SITUATION...AND THE NEW STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND WAS NEAR A FORT SCOTT TO EMINENCE LINE
AS OF 19Z. SURFACE BASED CAPES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
INCREASED TO AROUND 3000-3500 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT
FROM 40 TO 70 KTS. STORMS QUICKLY BECAME SUPERCELLULAR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A
CAP YET AT SGF AS OF 19Z SOUNDING HOWEVER AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN(SEE 19Z OUN SOUNDING).

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP AGAIN AND FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. BULK OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR NORTH OF THE CWA WITH CENTRAL MO ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW. THIS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA.

HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES
BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

MAY BE A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODELS HANDLE THIS TIME FRAME DIFFERENTLY AND
WITH FRONT NOT MOVING MUCH TO THE SOUTH CAN NOT RULE IT OUT
COMPLETELY. FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CONVECTION STILL FIRING ALONG WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
JLN TERMINAL AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SGF AREA BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT IN THE PLAINS WEST OF THE AREA AND COULD
AFFECT THE JLN/SGF AREAS LATER TONIGHT. HAVE CEILINGS DROPPING TO
AROUND 1500 IN CONVECTION AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1SM. HAVE
CONTINUED WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
219 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
219 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
FORT SCOTT TO NEAR EMINENCE. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE.

A WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHEAST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WHILE THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A CAP WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD WORK AGAINST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
INTERACTS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO ONE OR MORE SLOW
MOVING STORM COMPLEXES OR CLUSTERS.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THE TIMING
AND EXTENT OF THE STORMS IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             1 NE JOPLIN             37.09N 94.50W
06/09/2009  E1.00 INCH       JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            SOME HAIL THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
556 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N WEBB CITY           37.16N 94.48W
06/09/2009  E70 MPH          JASPER             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     TSTM WND GST     ORONOGO                 37.19N 94.47W
06/09/2009  M60 MPH          JASPER             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             8 W HALLTOWN            37.19N 93.77W
06/09/2009  M1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
628 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             1 ESE OAKLAND PARK      37.11N  94.46W
06/09/2009  E0.88 INCH       JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            MINOR LEAF DAMAGE

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PITTSBURG               37.41N  94.70W
06/09/2009                   CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED

&&

KARDELL