Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND WAS NEAR A FORT SCOTT TO EMINENCE LINE
AS OF 19Z. SURFACE BASED CAPES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
INCREASED TO AROUND 3000-3500 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT
FROM 40 TO 70 KTS. STORMS QUICKLY BECAME SUPERCELLULAR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A
CAP YET AT SGF AS OF 19Z SOUNDING HOWEVER AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN(SEE 19Z OUN SOUNDING).

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP AGAIN AND FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. BULK OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR NORTH OF THE CWA WITH CENTRAL MO ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW. THIS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA.

HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES
BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

MAY BE A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODELS HANDLE THIS TIME FRAME DIFFERENTLY AND
WITH FRONT NOT MOVING MUCH TO THE SOUTH CAN NOT RULE IT OUT
COMPLETELY. FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WARM FRONT STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS STARTING TO
DESTABILIZE QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 3000+ J/KG.
ENHANCED CU FIELD DEVELOPING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE STORM
INITIATION FAIRLY SOON. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED THIS
EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE SOME 40-45
KTS OF SHEAR.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
219 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
219 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
FORT SCOTT TO NEAR EMINENCE. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE.

A WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHEAST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WHILE THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A CAP WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD WORK AGAINST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
INTERACTS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO ONE OR MORE SLOW
MOVING STORM COMPLEXES OR CLUSTERS.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THE TIMING
AND EXTENT OF THE STORMS IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
242 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     HAIL             2 N AKERS               37.40N 91.55W
06/09/2009  M1.75 INCH       SHANNON            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 PM     HAIL             6 N LEBANON             37.77N 92.66W
06/09/2009  E1.00 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             4 S UNIONTOWN           37.79N 94.97W
06/09/2009  E0.88 INCH       BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     HAIL             MAPLETON                38.01N 94.88W
06/09/2009  E1.25 INCH       BOURBON            KS   STORM CHASER

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 PM     HAIL             6 N BRONSON             37.98N 95.07W
06/09/2009  E1.75 INCH       BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     HAIL             7 N LEBANON             37.78N 92.66W
06/09/2009  E0.50 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL FELL IN A 200FT WIDE SWATH ONE AND A HALF INCHES
            DEEP.

&&

BARJENBRUCH