Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THURSDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST.  WINDS WITH SHOWERS WITH
LINE WILL GIVE GUSTS OF 50+.  BEHIND FRONT SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK GOOD
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HAVE INCLUDED COMMENTS IN NPW INDICATING
SECURING LOOSE ITEMS.  NOT SURE JUST HOW MUCH POWER PROBLEMS THERE
WILL BE AS THE RECENT ICE STORM TOOK MANY DEAD LIMBS DOWN AND THE
LACK OF LEAVES WILL LET AIR PASS THROUGH THE TREES.  THIS MAY ALSO
PERMIT WINDS AT GROUND LEVEL TO BE STRONGER THEN WITH SUMMER GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING JUST FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS.  850 MB FLOW STILL AROUND 50 KNOTS
12Z-16Z.

HAVE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING THURSDAY IN NE WV AND
LEFT THE INCH OR LESS OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  GFS 850 TEMPS
MAY BE TOO COLD WITH MINUS 6 AT 12Z THURSDAY...THINKING MORE MINUS
3/4C.

WINDS CALM DOWN THURSDAY EVENING.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW ELONGATED VORT MAXIMUMS IN THE FAST 500 MB
FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE FRIDAY.  DID NOT THINK SYSTEM STRONG ENOUGH
FOR PCPN...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUDS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  GFS MOST VIGOROUS WITH MOISTURE AND PCPN. WE ARE THINKING
SYSTEM MAY REMAIN MORE FRAGMENTED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE ALONG
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDIONAL SUPPORT TO
OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATES.  SO NOT WILLING TO INCREASE
POPS OUT OF THE CHANCE RANGE NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BLENDED HPC/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
A FRESH FORECAST DAY 3 NIGHT THRU DAY 7.

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST
BRINGING RAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE TIMING OF PCPN AND TEMPERATURE
FIELD WITH NAM AND GFS HAVING SIMILAR H850 FREEZING LINE REACHING OH
RIVER...THE SREF IS COLDER WITH H850 MINUS 5-6C...AND THE
SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF WITH A WAVY FREEZING LINE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. LEANED TO NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS...FOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW SAT NIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CWA...AND ALL
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS BRING ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE SUN NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
SHALLOW FOR JUST LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX THRU MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS WITH FEED BACK ISSUES ON TUE AND WARM ADVECTION PCPN WERE
DISCARDED. THEREFORE...WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST OVER OH VALLEY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON AND TUE. THEREFORE...BROUGHT SOME
CLEARING SPREADING WEST TO EAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
WED...BRINGING BACK CLOUDS AND MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AS THEY LOOK TO HIGH. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS. NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO LOWS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND SKIES FOR DAY
4-7...IN THE 40S DAYTIME...AND BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT DROPPING TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT.  WINDS
AND GUSTS WILL BE THE BIG ISSUE CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  WINDS WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING SUSTAINED OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 50+
THROUGH TONIGHT.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY/...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR
HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/AAR/ARJ
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...KTB/TJT
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...AAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
440 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-120945-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
440 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 60 MPH AT TIME BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ046-047-120945-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
440 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 60 MPH AT TIME BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.