Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Charleston, WV

000 
WWUS51 KRLX 112314
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
614 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

VAC027-WVC005-015-019-039-045-047-059-067-081-109-112345-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-090211T2345Z/
BUCHANAN VA-KANAWHA WV-LOGAN WV-CLAY WV-NICHOLAS WV-MCDOWELL WV-
WYOMING WV-RALEIGH WV-MINGO WV-BOONE WV-FAYETTE WV-
614 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EST
FOR WESTERN FAYETTE...BOONE...SOUTHEASTERN MINGO...RALEIGH...
WYOMING...MCDOWELL...WEST CENTRAL NICHOLAS...SOUTHERN CLAY...EASTERN
LOGAN...SOUTHERN KANAWHA AND EASTERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES...

AT 612 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED 
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CEDAR GROVE TO NAOMA TO OAKWOOD...MOVING 
EAST AT 55 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  POND GAP...COALWOOD...WOLF PEN AND ARTIE BY 620 PM EST...
  INDORE...BENTREE...CUCUMBER AND BOLT BY 625 PM EST...
  BICKMORE AND ELBERT BY 630 PM EST...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3749 8195 3821 8183 3851 8087 3804 8100
      3744 8129 3729 8139 3720 8164 3724 8174
      3718 8178 3712 8200 3708 8202 3705 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 248DEG 50KT 3828 8136 3789 8147
          3718 8182

$$

10

000 
WWUS51 KRLX 112343
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
643 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

VAC027-WVC005-015-019-039-045-047-059-067-081-109-112354-
/O.EXP.KRLX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-090211T2345Z/
BUCHANAN VA-KANAWHA WV-LOGAN WV-CLAY WV-NICHOLAS WV-MCDOWELL WV-
WYOMING WV-RALEIGH WV-MINGO WV-BOONE WV-FAYETTE WV-
644 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN FAYETTE...BOONE...
SOUTHEASTERN MINGO...RALEIGH...WYOMING...MCDOWELL...WEST CENTRAL
NICHOLAS...SOUTHERN CLAY...EASTERN LOGAN...SOUTHERN KANAWHA AND
EASTERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 645 PM EST...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM WHICH
PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3749 8195 3821 8183 3851 8087 3804 8100
      3744 8129 3729 8139 3720 8164 3724 8174
      3718 8178 3712 8200 3708 8202 3705 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 248DEG 50KT 3841 8085 3802 8097
          3732 8134

$$

10

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THURSDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST.  WINDS WITH SHOWERS WITH
LINE WILL GIVE GUSTS OF 50+.  BEHIND FRONT SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK GOOD
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HAVE INCLUDED COMMENTS IN NPW INDICATING
SECURING LOOSE ITEMS.  NOT SURE JUST HOW MUCH POWER PROBLEMS THERE
WILL BE AS THE RECENT ICE STORM TOOK MANY DEAD LIMBS DOWN AND THE
LACK OF LEAVES WILL LET AIR PASS THROUGH THE TREES.  THIS MAY ALSO
PERMIT WINDS AT GROUND LEVEL TO BE STRONGER THEN WITH SUMMER GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING JUST FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS.  850 MB FLOW STILL AROUND 50 KNOTS
12Z-16Z.

HAVE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING THURSDAY IN NE WV AND
LEFT THE INCH OR LESS OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  GFS 850 TEMPS
MAY BE TOO COLD WITH MINUS 6 AT 12Z THURSDAY...THINKING MORE MINUS
3/4C.

WINDS CALM DOWN THURSDAY EVENING.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW ELONGATED VORT MAXIMUMS IN THE FAST 500 MB
FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE FRIDAY.  DID NOT THINK SYSTEM STRONG ENOUGH
FOR PCPN...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUDS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  GFS MOST VIGOROUS WITH MOISTURE AND PCPN. WE ARE THINKING
SYSTEM MAY REMAIN MORE FRAGMENTED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE ALONG
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDIONAL SUPPORT TO
OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATES.  SO NOT WILLING TO INCREASE
POPS OUT OF THE CHANCE RANGE NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BLENDED HPC/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
A FRESH FORECAST DAY 3 NIGHT THRU DAY 7.

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST
BRINGING RAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE TIMING OF PCPN AND TEMPERATURE
FIELD WITH NAM AND GFS HAVING SIMILAR H850 FREEZING LINE REACHING OH
RIVER...THE SREF IS COLDER WITH H850 MINUS 5-6C...AND THE
SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF WITH A WAVY FREEZING LINE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. LEANED TO NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS...FOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW SAT NIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CWA...AND ALL
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS BRING ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE SUN NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
SHALLOW FOR JUST LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX THRU MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS WITH FEED BACK ISSUES ON TUE AND WARM ADVECTION PCPN WERE
DISCARDED. THEREFORE...WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST OVER OH VALLEY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON AND TUE. THEREFORE...BROUGHT SOME
CLEARING SPREADING WEST TO EAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
WED...BRINGING BACK CLOUDS AND MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AS THEY LOOK TO HIGH. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS. NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO LOWS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND SKIES FOR DAY
4-7...IN THE 40S DAYTIME...AND BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT DROPPING TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT.  WINDS
AND GUSTS WILL BE THE BIG ISSUE CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  WINDS WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING SUSTAINED OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 50+
THROUGH TONIGHT.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY/...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR
HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/AAR/ARJ
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...KTB/TJT
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...AAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
440 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-120945-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
440 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 60 MPH AT TIME BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ046-047-120945-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
440 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 60 MPH AT TIME BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.