Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
445 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PREVAILS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AFFECTS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEFT OVER BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT OVER IN AND IL WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY GOOD.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. TIMING OF FRONT IS NOT OPTIMUM FOR STRONGER STORMS...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA THERE WAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

HAVE INTRODUCED POPS INTO DAYS 2-3 TO ACCOUNT FOR ECMWF PLACEMENT OF
COLD UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. FAVORED A DIURNAL PRECIP
PATTERN DURING THESE PERIODS. MOS GUIDE BC USED FOR TEMPS ON SAT AND
SUN BUT RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD LOOKS QUIET INITIALLY BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDE FOR POPS LATER ON THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP DAYS 6-7.
RAISED HPC MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON DAY 4 AND LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY ON
DAY 5. TEMPS WERE LOWERED FROM HPC ON DAY 7 TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER
POP.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...LOW VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION.

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG AND OR LOW
STRATUS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/TJT
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RPY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
424 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

VAZ003-004-WVZ013-015-024>028-030>040-046-047-212030-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-LINCOLN-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
424 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NO SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-014-016>020-029-
212030-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-PUTNAM-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-GILMER-
424 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 721 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>