Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
127 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE MADE SOIL CONDITIONS EXTREMELY
VULNERABLE. MUDSLIDES...FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS AND URBAN
STREETS IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY SINCE THE LOW WILL BE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST...INTERACTS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH
THE TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE GOOD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA. FRIDAY COULD
ACTUALLY BE DRY. ALTHOUGH THE DRYNESS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED.
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MAINLY
ISOLATED AND LIMITED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AGAIN AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE REGION. SO...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH A TREND TO MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TONIGHT.  FOR
TUESDAY...CONVECTION PICKS UP DURING THE DAY WITH MOST OF THE STORMS
FORMING OVER THE MTNS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR/LOCAL IFR
VIS/CIGS WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY. KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AWAY
FROM THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BECOMING ISOLATED OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN AND WIDELY
SCATTERED DURING THE DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
WILL AGAIN BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN THE OVERALL WIND
FLOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP IN THE
AFTERNOON.  KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR IDZ018-019-
022>025-031-032.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
624 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

IDZ017>025-031-032-161230-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
624 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER
AND SATURATED SOILS SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING...REFER TO LATEST BULLETIN FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EXPECT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO RETURN WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING IN THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
144 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WESTON                  42.04N 111.98W
06/15/2009  M0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           ID   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAINSHOWER BEGAN AT 1238 WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNT
            FALLING IN 45 MINUTES. RAINING LIGHTLY AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

GWICKLUN

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