Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
410 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND
EASTERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE RFC AND MOIST SOILS SUPPORTS
CONTINUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT LEAVING A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STILL IN THE AREA EXPECT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE AGREEING ON
RIDGING BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LEAVING US WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. FROM SATURDAY ON...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
COMPLETE AGREEMENT. BOTH MODELS ARE AGREEING ON TROUGHING BUT ARE
NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT IN TIMING OR INTENSITY. THE GFS HAS A
WEAK TROUGH ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH A MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. FROM SUNDAY ON...HAVE GONE WITH CLIMO POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU
HIGHLANDS. DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL FOLLOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW A DIURNAL TREND AND SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
FOLLOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS ON TUESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR IDZ018-019-022>025-
031-032.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
624 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

IDZ017>025-031-032-161230-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
624 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER
AND SATURATED SOILS SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING...REFER TO LATEST BULLETIN FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EXPECT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO RETURN WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING IN THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.