Alert archive / New Jersey / Coastal Flood Warnings in 2009

Coastal Flood Warning 5, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

December 18, 2009Cape May County, New Jersey; Sussex County, Delaware

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this coastal flood warning at Dec 18, 2009, 4:10 PM EST for Cape May County, New Jersey; Sussex County, Delaware. It took effect at Dec 19, 2009, 8:00 AM EST. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 18, 2009, 4:10 PM EST (21:10 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 19, 2009, 8:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 19, 2009, 2:00 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Counties Sussex County, DE, Cape May County, NJ

The radar

The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2009-12-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2009-12-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -25 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1433 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-25 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
83 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WHUS41 KPHI 182110
CFWPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...STRONG COASTAL STORM ON SATURDAY...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH
CAROLINA ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS TO
THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

DEZ004-191100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1300Z-091219T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.W.0005.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.SU.Y.0004.091219T1100Z-091220T1100Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-
410 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 8:00 AM UNTIL 2:00 PM ON SATURDAY. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 6:00 AM
ON SATURDAY UNTIL 6:00 AM ON SUNDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. 
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE. 
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON 
SATURDAY MORNING.

AT BREAKWATER HARBOR, HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 10:09 AM ON SATURDAY WITH 
A FORECAST HEIGHT OF 7 FEET MLLW.

AT REHOBOTH BEACH, HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 9:21 AM ON SATURDAY WITH A 
FORECAST HEIGHT OF 7 FEET MLLW.

HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER THAN 
IT DOES ON THE OCEANFRONT.

WIDESPREAD ROADWAY FLOODING AND SOME PROPERTY FLOODING IS POSSIBLE 
IN SUSSEX COUNTY ON SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BEACH EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL 
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER 
THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

DEZ003-191100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1300Z-091219T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.W.0005.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-
410 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 8:00 AM UNTIL 2:00 PM ON SATURDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. 
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE. 
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON 
SATURDAY MORNING.

AT BREAKWATER HARBOR, HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 10:09 AM ON SATURDAY WITH 
A FORECAST HEIGHT OF 7 FEET MLLW.

AT REHOBOTH BEACH, HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 9:21 AM ON SATURDAY WITH A 
FORECAST HEIGHT OF 7 FEET MLLW.

HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER THAN 
IT DOES ON THE OCEANFRONT.

WIDESPREAD ROADWAY FLOODING AND SOME PROPERTY FLOODING IS POSSIBLE 
IN SUSSEX COUNTY ON SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL 
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER 
THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

NJZ024-025-191100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SU.Y.0004.091219T1100Z-091220T1100Z/
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
410 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. IT
IS IN EFFECT FROM 6:00 AM ON SATURDAY UNTIL 6:00 AM ON SUNDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8:00 AM UNTIL
2:00 PM ON SATURDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. 
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE. 
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON 
SATURDAY MORNING.

ON THE ATLANTIC COUNTY AND CAPE MAY COUNTY OCEANFRONT, HIGH TIDE 
OCCURS BETWEEN 8:45 AM AND 9:45 AM ON SATURDAY. HIGH TIDE ON THE 
BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER THAN IT DOES ON THE 
OCEANFRONT.

HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BEACH EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL 
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER 
THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

NJZ014-026-191100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SU.Y.0004.091219T1100Z-091220T1100Z/
EASTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL OCEAN-
410 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. IT
IS IN EFFECT FROM 6:00 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 6:00 AM ON SUNDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. 
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE HIGH SURF AND WIDESPREAD BEACH
EROSION.

$$

NJZ022-023-191100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
410 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8:00 AM UNTIL
2:00 PM ON SATURDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. 
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE. 
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON 
SATURDAY MORNING.

ON THE ATLANTIC COUNTY AND CAPE MAY COUNTY OCEANFRONT, HIGH TIDE 
OCCURS BETWEEN 8:45 AM AND 9:45 AM ON SATURDAY. HIGH TIDE ON THE 
BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER THAN IT DOES ON THE 
OCEANFRONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL 
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER 
THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-021-191100-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1500Z-091219T2000Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-
410 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM
EST SATURDAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10:00 AM UNTIL
3:00 PM ON SATURDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. 
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE. 
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM 
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AND ON THE LOWER REACHES OF THE 
DELAWARE RIVER, HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 11:00 AM AND 1:00 PM ON 
SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL 
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER 
THAN YOU THINK IT IS.


&&

$$

IOVINO
2 follow-up statements
000 
WHUS41 KPHI 190215
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...STRONG COASTAL STORM ON SATURDAY...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH
CAROLINA ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS TO
THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

DEZ004-191100-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0005.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.SU.Y.0004.091219T1100Z-091220T1100Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-
915 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8:00 AM UNTIL 2:00
PM SATURDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6:00 AM
SATURDAY UNTIL 6:00 AM SUNDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO
INCREASE. MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY MORNING.

AT BREAKWATER HARBOR, HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 10:09 AM ON SATURDAY
WITH A FORECAST HEIGHT NEAR 7 FEET MLLW.

AT REHOBOTH BEACH, HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 9:21 AM ON SATURDAY WITH A
FORECAST HEIGHT NEAR 7 FEET MLLW.

HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER
THAN IT DOES ON THE OCEANFRONT.

WIDESPREAD ROADWAY FLOODING AND SOME PROPERTY FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN SUSSEX COUNTY ON SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BEACH EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

DEZ003-191100-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0005.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-
915 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8:00 AM UNTIL 2:00
PM SATURDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO
INCREASE. MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY MORNING.

AT BREAKWATER HARBOR, HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 10:09 AM ON SATURDAY
WITH A FORECAST HEIGHT NEAR 7 FEET MLLW.

AT REHOBOTH BEACH, HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 9:21 AM ON SATURDAY WITH A
FORECAST HEIGHT NEAR 7 FEET MLLW.

HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER
THAN IT DOES ON THE OCEANFRONT.

WIDESPREAD ROADWAY FLOODING AND SOME PROPERTY FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN SUSSEX COUNTY ON SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

NJZ024-025-191100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SU.Y.0004.091219T1100Z-091220T1100Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
915 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6:00 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 6:00
AM SUNDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8:00 AM
UNTIL 2:00 PM SATURDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO
INCREASE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY MORNING.

ON THE ATLANTIC COUNTY AND CAPE MAY COUNTY OCEANFRONT, HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 8:45 AM AND 9:45 AM ON SATURDAY. HIGH TIDE ON THE
BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER THAN IT DOES ON THE
OCEANFRONT.

HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BEACH EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

NJZ022-023-191100-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
915 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8:00 AM UNTIL
2:00 PM SATURDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO
INCREASE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY MORNING.

ON THE ATLANTIC COUNTY AND CAPE MAY COUNTY OCEANFRONT, HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 8:45 AM AND 9:45 AM ON SATURDAY. HIGH TIDE ON THE
BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER THAN IT DOES ON THE
OCEANFRONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-021-191100-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1500Z-091219T2000Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-
915 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM
EST SATURDAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10:00 AM UNTIL
3:00 PM SATURDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO
INCREASE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AND ON THE LOWER REACHES OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER, HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 11:00 AM AND 1:00 PM ON
SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

NJZ014-026-191100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SU.Y.0004.091219T1100Z-091220T1100Z/
EASTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL OCEAN-
915 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6:00 AM SATURDAY UNTIL
6:00 AM SUNDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE HIGH SURF AND
WIDESPREAD BEACH EROSION.

$$

IOVINO
000 
WHUS41 KPHI 190937
CFWPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
437 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2009

...STRONG COASTAL STORM TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF CAPE HATTERAS...
NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

NJZ024-191900-
/O.UPG.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.CF.W.0005.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.SU.Y.0004.091219T1100Z-091220T1100Z/
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
437 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL
DEPARTURES TO INCREASE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

AT CAPE MAY, HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 929 AM THIS MORNING WITH A
FORECAST HEIGHT NEAR 8 FT MLLW.

HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BEACH EROSION.

HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER
THAN IT DOES ON THE OCEANFRONT.

WIDESPREAD ROADWAY FLOODING AND SOME PROPERTY FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS... THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

NJZ023-191900-
/O.UPG.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.CF.W.0005.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
CAPE MAY-
437 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL
DEPARTURES TO INCREASE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

AT CAPE MAY, HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 929 AM THIS MORNING WITH A
FORECAST HEIGHT NEAR 8 FT MLLW.

HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER
THAN IT DOES ON THE OCEANFRONT.

WIDESPREAD ROADWAY FLOODING AND SOME PROPERTY FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN SUSSEX COUNTY ON SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS... THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

&&

$$

DEZ004-191900-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0005.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.SU.Y.0004.091219T1100Z-091220T1100Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-
437 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. 

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL
DEPARTURES TO INCREASE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

AT BREAKWATER HARBOR... HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 1009 AM TODAY WITH A
FORECAST HEIGHT NEAR 7 FEET MLLW.

AT REHOBOTH BEACH... HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 921 AM TODAY WITH A FORECAST
HEIGHT NEAR 7 FEET MLLW.

HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER
THAN IT DOES ON THE OCEANFRONT.

WIDESPREAD ROADWAY FLOODING AND SOME PROPERTY FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN SUSSEX COUNTY ON SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BEACH EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS... THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

DEZ003-191900-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0005.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-
437 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO
INCREASE. MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY MORNING.

AT BREAKWATER HARBOR... HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 1009 AM TODAY WITH A
FORECAST HEIGHT NEAR 7 FEET MLLW.

AT REHOBOTH BEACH... HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 921 AM TODAY WITH A
FORECAST HEIGHT NEAR 7 FEET MLLW.

HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER
THAN IT DOES ON THE OCEANFRONT.

WIDESPREAD ROADWAY FLOODING AND SOME PROPERTY FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN SUSSEX COUNTY ON SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS... THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

NJZ025-191900-
/O.CON.KPHI.SU.Y.0004.091219T1100Z-091220T1100Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
437 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS
MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO
INCREASE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY MORNING.

ON THE ATLANTIC COUNTY AND CAPE MAY COUNTY OCEANFRONT... HIGH
TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 8:45 AM AND 9:45 AM TODAY. HIGH TIDE ON THE
BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER THAN IT DOES ON THE
OCEANFRONT.

HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BEACH EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS... THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

NJZ022-191900-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1300Z-091219T1900Z/
ATLANTIC-
437 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS
MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO
INCREASE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

ON THE ATLANTIC COUNTY AND CAPE MAY COUNTY OCEANFRONT... HIGH
TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 8:45 AM AND 9:45 AM TODAY. HIGH TIDE ON THE
BACK BAYS AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY OCCURS LATER THAN IT DOES ON THE
OCEANFRONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS... THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-021-191900-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0041.091219T1500Z-091219T2000Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-
437 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO
INCREASE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ON THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AND ON THE LOWER REACHES OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER... HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 11:00 AM AND 1:00 PM
TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS... THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

$$

NJZ014-026-191900-
/O.CON.KPHI.SU.Y.0004.091219T1100Z-091220T1100Z/
EASTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL OCEAN-
437 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. 

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE HIGH SURF AND WIDESPREAD
BEACH EROSION.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this coastal flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this coastal flood warning went out at Dec 18, 2:35 PM EST, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 18, 2:35 PM EST, 1 hour 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STORM THEN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION TOWARD THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING DRY WX AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN DECREASED
SOMEWHAT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW JERSEY TO REFLECT ONLY SOME HIGH, THIN
CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE NEWD TONIGHT. LEANED TWD THE COOLER MET
TEMPS, AS GFS GUID HAS BEEN TOO WARM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
APPEARED THE SAME FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOW, THE FUN BEGINS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NRN GLFMEX. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TWD A POSN NR THE NC CST BY
19/12Z. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THAT. AFTER
19/12Z THERE IS A BIT MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE THAN I WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THIS CLOSE TO AN EVENT, AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
18/06Z GUIDANCE, THE UNCERTAINTY GETS EVEN GREATER. UNFORTUNATELY,
MY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF EARLIER HAS NOW DIMINISHED.

AS FAR AS THE GUIDANCE GOES, THE 18/00Z NAM/WRF HAD AN EXTREME
OUTLIER AND WE ARE DISCOUNTING THIS SOLN ATTM. THE NAM/WRF HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO HIGH WITH QPF AND THE THINKING IS THAT IT IS
HERE AS WELL. THE 18/06Z NAM HAS NOW SHIFTED 180 DEGREES AND IS AN
OUTLIER IN THE OTHER DIRECTION. IT KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER S AND E
AND WOULD MEAN A LOT LESS QPF OVER THE REGION, WHICH WOULD MEAN A
MUCH LESSER EVENT. THE 03Z SREF HAS ALSO TRENDED TOWARD A MORE S
AND E SOLN. THE GFS HAS A BIT FLATTER SOLN AND FURTHER E AS A
RESULT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER E AND STRONGER THAN
ITS PREV MDL RUN. THE ECMWF IS GENLY ONE OF THE MORE RELIABLE
MDLS. THE UKMET IS PRACTICALLY IDENTICAL TO THE ECMWF. THE UKMET
IS OFTENTIMES THE SECOND BEST MODEL, SO THE FACT THAT IT IS
VIRTUALLY ON TOP OF THE ECMWF COULD LEND SOME CREDENCE TO THAT
SOLN. WHILE I DONT LIKE TO HANG MY HAT ON SIGNIFICANT DIFFS BASED
SOLELY ON ONE MODEL RUN, THE DEVELOPING TRENDS ARE VERY DIFFICULT
TO IGNORE.

SO, WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM S TO N BEGINNING
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE EXTREME S. SNOW REALLY PICKS UP
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. TEMPS APPEAR TO
BE COLD ENOUGH AND THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO KEEP
EVERYONE AS SNOW, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME CSTL
AREAS AND THE COAST OF DE. ANY PRECIP TYPE QUESTIONS ARE
COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND WHETHER ANY WARM
AIR CAN WORK IN.

SINCE THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT (IT
WOULD BE HIGHER IF IT WAS OCCURRING ON A WEEKDAY), WE FELT IT WAS
PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO WARNINGS ATTM. SO, BASICALLY WE WILL UPGRADE
TO WARNINGS FROM PHL S AND E AND LEAVE EVERYONE ELSE AS WATCHES
DUE TO THE DEVELOPING UNCERTAINTY. WILL ALSO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY IN CSTL DE AS THEY MAY MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN AS SNOW. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE
WATCHES FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE CWA WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
NOT COVERED. IF THE MORE S AND E TRACK COMES TO FRUITION, IT WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NRN AND
WRN AREAS.

AS FAR AS QPF GOES, THIS STORM HAS ITS ORIGINS IN THE GLFMEX, SO THERE
IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH IT. QPF VALUES WILL GENLY DECREASE AS
YOU MOVE N AND W, BUT SOME PLACES WILL LIKELY SEE OVER AN INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT. EXACTLY WHERE THOSE LOCATIONS ARE IS ONE OF THE
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS. IF THE MORE SRN AND ERN TRACK IS CLOSER TO
REALITY, THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. IF THE MORE NRN AND WWD TRACK DEVELOPS THEN, THE HEAVIER
AMTS WOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW, WE WERE
THINKING OF A BROAD 6 TO 14 INCH SNOWFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH EVERYTHING GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM, DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST. AFTER THE STORM PULLS
AWAY ON SUNDAY, WEAK HIGH PRES BUILD IN FOR MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO
A WK LOW TO THE NW, WHICH COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NWRN ZONES. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING DRY WX. THEN, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA EJECTS
OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND MOVES TWD THE GRTLKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. FIRST, A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FCST WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN, AS THE MAIN LOW IS TO OUR WEST. TEMPS WILL START OFF
AOB NORMAL, ESPECIALLY WITH NEW SNOW COVER BUT THEN ARE FCST TO
RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIRRUS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO ALTOCU/MID
CLOUDS BY EVENING.

TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER, AFTER
MIDNIGHT, LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH AND SNOW SHOULD ALSO BE
DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF PHL. ONCE SNOW
STARTS, CIG/VSBY SHOULD DROP TO IFR.

ON SATURDAY, IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES IN SNOW WITH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE COAST, BUT EVEN INLAND, THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF THE SNOW AS IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY, EXCEPT PERHAPS AT
MIV/ACY.

THE CAUSE FOR THE SNOW IS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE STORM WILL HEAD NE OFF THE EAST COAST AND MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR END BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AFTN. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.
VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL BE UGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALL WATERS. THE
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO GALE FORCE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING
EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE NOR EASTER TAKES SHAPE. BY SATURDAY
EVENING, THE STORM SHOULD BE EAST OF DELMARVA AND WINDS SHOULD BE
PEAKING. CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE STORM CENTER,
WINDS LOOK LIKE HIGH GALE IN GUSTS ALTHOUGH I CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED
STORM GUSTS MAINLY SOUTH.

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH COLD AIR ON
WARM WATER. THEREFORE, A CONTINUED NW WIND WITH A DECENT GRADIENT
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCA TYPE WIND GUSTS OVER THE REGION INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOTION OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE EXPECTED
STRONG NE FLOW, WE SHOULD SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND FOR THE DELAWARE
BAY FOR THE HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS THE HIGHER OF THE 2 DAILY HIGH TIDES. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS
12 HRS LATER AND IS LOWER AND DEPARTURES DONT LOOK LARGE ENOUGH FOR
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BY HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS SHOULD
BE OFFSHORE AND DEPARTURES DECREASING. HOWEVER, WE MAY NEED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS TIDE, DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TIDES
DECREASE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ009-010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NJZ016-021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     NJZ022>025.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     DEZ003-004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...STAUBER
MARINE...STAUBER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAUBER
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 18, 1:06 PM EST, 3 hours 4 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
106 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-191815-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
106 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012-013-015-017>020-027-PAZ067>071-
191815-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
106 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-021-191815-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-
106 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-NJZ022-023-191815-
INLAND SUSSEX-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
106 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ014-026-191815-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL OCEAN-
106 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ024-025-191815-
DELAWARE BEACHES-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
106 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-191815-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
106 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 18, 2:24 AM ESTGale WarningPHI26 hr
Dec 18, 2:29 AM ESTCoastal Flood AdvisoryPHIAtlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Salem36 hr
Dec 18, 4:40 AM ESTWinter Storm WarningPHIAtlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and 10 more46 hr
Dec 18, 4:10 PM ESTHigh Surf AdvisoryPHIAtlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, Ocean34 hr
Dec 18, 4:40 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryPHISussex9 hr

Nearby

Coastal Flood Warnings in New Jersey, 2009Coastal Flood Warnings in Delaware, 2009Every coastal flood warning in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.