Winter Weather Advisory 13, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 181537
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF ALABAMA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF THE REGION.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-182345-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0006.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
1037 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES AS
THE STORM MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS.

WARMER AIR MAY PUSH IN FROM THE OCEAN AND CAUSE A MIX OR CHANGE
TO PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE COAST...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN
AREAS JUST INLAND. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY EVEN THESE
LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AND POTENTIALLY RECEIVE
HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS.

ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNING AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE TOTALS ARE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM. IF THE LOW MOVES MORE
TO THE WEST... AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD
YIELD LOWER ACCUMULATIONS.

THE SNOW SHOULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO AT
ALONG THE COAST.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

DEZ004-182345-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...REHOBOTH BEACH
1037 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY
TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WARMER AIR
SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE OCEAN AND CAUSE A MIX OR CHANGE TO PLAIN
RAIN...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AREAS JUST INLAND.

HOWEVER... AS THE STORM PULLS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
BACK TO ALL SNOW.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...OR A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE
PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-182345-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
1037 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND.

THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES... WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. THIS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS
DEVELOPING STORM. IF A MORE WESTWARD TRACK MATERIALIZES...SNOW
AMOUNTS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE WATCH AREA. A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK WOULD YIELD LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

$$

GIGI

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 181814
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
114 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN FLORIDA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF THE REGION.

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-190400-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/
/O.EXB.KPHI.WS.W.0006.091219T1100Z-091220T1100Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
114 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY
TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE 4 TO 8 INCHES.

THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES... WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. THIS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING
STORM. IF A MORE WESTWARD TRACK MATERIALIZES...HIGHER AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD YIELD LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

DEZ004-190400-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0006.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...REHOBOTH BEACH
114 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY
TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WARMER AIR
SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE OCEAN AND CAUSE A MIX OR CHANGE TO PLAIN
RAIN...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AREAS JUST INLAND.

HOWEVER... AS THE STORM PULLS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
BACK TO ALL SNOW WITH FINAL ACCUMULATIONS REACHING 6 TO 8 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

NJZ009-010-012>015-PAZ067>069-190400-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0007.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0006.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
114 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM
EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND WITH
FINAL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES LIKELY.

THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES... WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING
STORM. IF A MORE WESTWARD TRACK MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD
BE HIGHER. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD YIELD LIGHTER AMOUNTS.
 
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-190400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0006.091219T0600Z-091220T1100Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
114 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES AS
THE STORM MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS.

WARMER AIR MAY PUSH IN FROM THE OCEAN AND MAY CAUSE A MIX OR
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...KEEPING SNOW
AMOUNTS LESS THAN AREAS JUST INLAND. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM PULLS
AWAY EVEN THESE LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AND
POTENTIALLY RECEIVE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS.

ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING
AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE TOTALS ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM. IF THE LOW MOVES MORE TO THE
WEST...AMOUNTS COULD STILL BE HIGHER. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD
YIELD LOWER ACCUMULATIONS.

THE SNOW SHOULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
CLOSER TO AT ALONG THE COAST.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$


HEAVENER/GIGI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STORM THEN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION TOWARD THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING DRY WX AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE NEWD TONIGHT. LEANED TWD THE COOLER MET TEMPS, AS GFS
GUID HAS BEEN TOO WARM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND APPEARED THE
SAME FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOW, THE FUN BEGINS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NRN GLFMEX. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TWD A POSN NR THE NC CST BY
19/12Z. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THAT. AFTER
19/12Z THERE IS A BIT MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE THAN I WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THIS CLOSE TO AN EVENT, AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
18/06Z GUIDANCE, THE UNCERTAINTY GETS EVEN GREATER. UNFORTUNATELY,
MY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF EARLIER HAS NOW DIMINISHED.

AS FAR AS THE GUIDANCE GOES, THE 18/00Z NAM/WRF HAD AN EXTREME
OUTLIER AND WE ARE DISCOUNTING THIS SOLN ATTM. THE NAM/WRF HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO HIGH WITH QPF AND THE THINKING IS THAT IT IS
HERE AS WELL. THE 18/06Z NAM HAS NOW SHIFTED 180 DEGREES AND IS AN
OUTLIER IN THE OTHER DIRECTION. IT KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER S AND E
AND WOULD MEAN A LOT LESS QPF OVER THE REGION, WHICH WOULD MEAN A
MUCH LESSER EVENT. THE 03Z SREF HAS ALSO TRENDED TOWARD A MORE S
AND E SOLN. THE GFS HAS A BIT FLATTER SOLN AND FURTHER E AS A
RESULT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER E AND STRONGER THAN
ITS PREV MDL RUN. THE ECMWF IS GENLY ONE OF THE MORE RELIABLE
MDLS. THE UKMET IS PRACTICALLY IDENTICAL TO THE ECMWF. THE UKMET
IS OFTENTIMES THE SECOND BEST MODEL, SO THE FACT THAT IT IS
VIRTUALLY ON TOP OF THE ECMWF COULD LEND SOME CREDENCE TO THAT
SOLN. WHILE I DONT LIKE TO HANG MY HAT ON SIGNIFICANT DIFFS BASED
SOLELY ON ONE MODEL RUN, THE DEVELOPING TRENDS ARE VERY DIFFICULT
TO IGNORE.

SO, WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM S TO N BEGINNING
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE EXTREME S. SNOW REALLY PICKS UP
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. TEMPS APPEAR TO
BE COLD ENOUGH AND THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO KEEP
EVERYONE AS SNOW, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME CSTL
AREAS AND THE COAST OF DE. ANY PRECIP TYPE QUESTIONS ARE
COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND WHETHER ANY WARM
AIR CAN WORK IN.

SINCE THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT (IT
WOULD BE HIGHER IF IT WAS OCCURRING ON A WEEKDAY), WE FELT IT WAS
PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO WARNINGS ATTM. SO, BASICALLY WE WILL UPGRADE
TO WARNINGS FROM PHL S AND E AND LEAVE EVERYONE ELSE AS WATCHES
DUE TO THE DEVELOPING UNCERTAINTY. WILL ALSO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY IN CSTL DE AS THEY MAY MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN AS SNOW. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE
WATCHES FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE CWA WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
NOT COVERED. IF THE MORE S AND E TRACK COMES TO FRUITION, IT WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NRN AND
WRN AREAS.

AS FAR AS QPF GOES, THIS STORM HAS ITS ORIGINS IN THE GLFMEX, SO THERE
IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH IT. QPF VALUES WILL GENLY DECREASE AS
YOU MOVE N AND W, BUT SOME PLACES WILL LIKELY SEE OVER AN INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT. EXACTLY WHERE THOSE LOCATIONS ARE IS ONE OF THE
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS. IF THE MORE SRN AND ERN TRACK IS CLOSER TO
REALITY, THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. IF THE MORE NRN AND WWD TRACK DEVELOPS THEN, THE HEAVIER
AMTS WOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW, WE WERE
THINKING OF A BROAD 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS.

THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

====================================================================

           PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
         THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

====================================================================
STATION      2IN      4IN      6IN      9IN     12IN
====================================================================

MPO          80       70       50       20       10
ABE          90       80       65       30       15
PHL          90       85       75       40       20
ACY          90       85       75       40       20
GED          90       85       75       40       20

====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - ATLANTIC CITY, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH EVERYTHING GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM, DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST. AFTER THE STORM PULLS
AWAY ON SUNDAY, WEAK HIGH PRES BUILD IN FOR MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO
A WK LOW TO THE NW, WHICH COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NWRN ZONES. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING DRY WX. THEN, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA EJECTS
OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND MOVES TWD THE GRTLKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. FIRST, A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FCST WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN, AS THE MAIN LOW IS TO OUR WEST. TEMPS WILL START OFF
AOB NORMAL, ESPECIALLY WITH NEW SNOW COVER BUT THEN ARE FCST TO
RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIRRUS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO ALTOCU/MID
CLOUDS BY EVENING.

TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER, AFTER
MIDNIGHT, LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH AND SNOW SHOULD ALSO BE
DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF PHL. ONCE SNOW
STARTS, CIG/VSBY SHOULD DROP TO IFR.

ON SATURDAY, IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES IN SNOW WITH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE COAST, BUT EVEN INLAND, THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF THE SNOW AS IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY, EXCEPT PERHAPS AT
MIV/ACY.

THE CAUSE FOR THE SNOW IS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE STORM WILL HEAD NE OFF THE EAST COAST AND MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR END BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AFTN. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.
VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL BE UGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALL WATERS. THE
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO GALE FORCE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING
EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE NOR EASTER TAKES SHAPE. BY SATURDAY
EVENING, THE STORM SHOULD BE EAST OF DELMARVA AND WINDS SHOULD BE
PEAKING. CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE STORM CENTER,
WINDS LOOK LIKE HIGH GALE IN GUSTS ALTHOUGH I CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED
STORM GUSTS MAINLY SOUTH.

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH COLD AIR ON
WARM WATER. THEREFORE, A CONTINUED NW WIND WITH A DECENT GRADIENT
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCA TYPE WIND GUSTS OVER THE REGION INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOTION OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE EXPECTED
STRONG NE FLOW, WE SHOULD SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND FOR THE DELAWARE
BAY FOR THE HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS THE HIGHER OF THE 2 DAILY HIGH TIDES. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS
12 HRS LATER AND IS LOWER AND DEPARTURES DONT LOOK LARGE ENOUGH FOR
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BY HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS SHOULD
BE OFFSHORE AND DEPARTURES DECREASING. HOWEVER, WE MAY NEED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS TIDE, DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TIDES
DECREASE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ016>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NJZ016-021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     NJZ022>025.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001>003.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR DEZ004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     DEZ003-004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...STAUBER
MARINE...STAUBER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAUBER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1024 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-182330-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
1024 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STORM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST IN THE EVENT WINTER STORM WATCHES,
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ060-067>071-182330-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1024 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

  WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-182330-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
1024 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANZ430-431-450>455-182330-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1024 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.