Severe Thunderstorm Warning 461, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
239 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN OK EARLIER TODAY AND HAS LEFT SEVERAL RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
BEHIND ACROSS THE AREA. DRYLINE ALSO TAKING SHAPE NEAR OUR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS ZONES AND POINTS SOUTH. THESE MAY ALL ACT A FOCI FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY... ALTHOUGH MIDDAY SOUNDING SHOWED
SUBSTANTIAL CAP REMAINS IN PLACE. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WOULD
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AS SUBSTANTIAL CAPE EXISTS IF ABLE TO BE
TAPPED. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN COLORADO FOR ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED... WHICH WOULD THEN MAKE A RUN
AT NORTHERN OK LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING... ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS
A LITTLE LESS LIKELY THAN LAST NIGHT.

WILL CONT TO HAVE TO MONITOR MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL REMOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH OTHER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES MAY PLAY MORE
PROMINENT ROLE ON DAY-TO-DAY BASIS. WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS GOING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO DRY THINGS OUT AND HEAT
THINGS UP NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER... LATEST GFS RETROGRADES THE RIDGE WEST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
HALF OF COUNTRY. THIS WOULD AID IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE AREA AND A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER BY FOLLOWING WEEKEND
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL MCS AFFECTING AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  92  69  91 /  30  20  40  40
HOBART OK         69  94  70  95 /  20  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  96  74  95 /  30  20  50  30
GAGE OK           62  87  65  92 /  20  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     65  87  66  87 /  20  20  30  30
DURANT OK         75  94  74  93 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

26/30

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