Severe Thunderstorm Warning 458, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
728 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

.UPDATE...
PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED AHEAD OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009/

DISCUSSION...
NEAR-TERM CONCERNS ARE THE SEVERE T-STORMS NOW OVER SW KS. LEAD
STORM N OF HARPER COUNTY HAS BEEN MOVING AT AN UNWAVERING 290/30KT
WHICH EXTRAPOLATES INTO N ALFALFA COUNTY AROUND 0930-1000Z. STORMS
HAVE NOT YET SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS... BUT
ARE MAINTAINING DISCRETE CORES WHICH WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS 40-50KT. STORMS HAVE
EXHIBITED SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS... WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN 0-3KM SRH OF 400-1000 M2/S2 OVER MOST OF SW KS. ANY TORNADO
POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE E/ESE AWAY FROM
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR... BUT A FEW MAY MORPH MORE TOWARD A BOW
ECHO CONFIGURATION WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

UPSTREAM UPPER TROF JUST OFF S CA PROGGED TO AMPLIFY TODAY... WHICH
IN TURN WILL AMPLIFY A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER CO/WY AREA. THIS WILL
PLACE KS/OK AREA IN SLIGHTLY VEERED WNW FLOW ALOFT JUST DOWNSTREAM
OF THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT THUS MAY STILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF THE EXISTING
CONVECTION INTO AN MCS... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
E OF OUR CWA WITH A SUBSEQUENT ESE TRACK AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY W-E NEAR 25N IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SHIFTING N INTO AT LEAST S TX BY THE WEEKEND... WITH MORE RIDGING
ALOFT ALSO EXTENDING N INTO OK/KS. STILL ENOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BE
A CONCERN FOR STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BUT THE INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE AREA IS LIKELY TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION FROM BECOMING VERY WIDESPREAD. THUS THE POPS ARE KEPT ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR MOST FORECAST PERIODS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BUT THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A WEAK-BUT-RESILIENT SFC FRONTAL ZONE
IN OR NEAR THE AREA WILL MEAN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SOMETHING
DEVELOPING IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD. IT NOW APPEARS THAT HE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS THE CENTER SHIFTS
NORTHWARD AND CLOSER TO THE OK/NTX AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SUMMER-LIKE HEAT MAY RETURN TO MORE OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  92  71 /  30  30  20  40
HOBART OK         93  68  93  72 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  72 100  76 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           84  63  88  65 /  20  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     85  65  85  70 /  70  30  20  40
DURANT OK         93  74  93  74 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
441 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
441 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO...TO
FAIRVIEW...TO GUTHRIE...TO HOLDENVILLE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 2 PM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION AND AUTOMOBILES FROM HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUSTAINED BY LIFT
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THOUGH STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE HAD A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS CLUSTER. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
STORMS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS COULD MAKE IT TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY
LATE MORNING. THIS SECOND COMPLEX MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH
AREAS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AFFECTED BY EARLIER STORMS...BUT COULD ALSO
POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUN 13.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD
FROM TEXAS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY CLOSE BY...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO STRONG JET STREAM FLOW...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>