Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

.AVIATION...
/0Z TAFS/...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SITES THIS EVENING FROM
KSPS TO KLAW TO KPNC AND SOUTHEAST. STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
TAF SITES MID TO LATE EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT/WED MORNING. LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND LOW CLOUDS /1000FT OR LESS/ WILL
ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK EARLY WED MORNING AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/

DISCUSSION...
18Z SOUNDING FROM OUN/FWD INDICATES CAP IS NEARLY ERODED FROM FWD
SOUNDING WHILE SOME WORK IS STILL NEEDED FARTHER NORTH.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES LEAD WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN/NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT AS MAIN SYSTEM NEARS AND
STRONG 120-130 KT JET LIFTS ACROSS TX/OK THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP NEAR A SHARPENING DRYLINE.

LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OK. STORMS MAY
INITIALLY BE WIDELY SCATTERED BEFORE NUMEROUS STORMS FORM IN A
LINEAR MODE AS STRONGER FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT MOST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  CAA
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS NW/NC/WC OKLAHOMA FROM NEAR 9Z INTO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LESS WIND.

WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FOR
NEXT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  COOLER/COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY.  TWO
MORE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION IN A PROGRESSIVE FLOW.  TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF EACH SYSTEM VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC.  AT THIS
TIME... WILL ADVERTISE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE MONDAY
TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  62  35  62 /  70  10   0  10
HOBART OK         41  62  36  63 /  40  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  68  37  67 /  40   0   0  10
GAGE OK           36  59  30  60 /  40  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  54  35  60 /  70  40   0  10
DURANT OK         50  67  39  64 /  90  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

32/25/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A WICHITA FALLS TO
KINGFISHER TO STILLWATER LINE. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDS
WEST OF THE MODERATE AREA AND IS ALONG AND EAST OF A CHEROKEE TO
ALTUS LINE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
2 PM UNTIL 11 PM.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO
80 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS. TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOIST AIR IS INCREASING
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS
SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL AID IN
DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SHEAR ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS ALONG AN EASTWARD
ADVANCING DRYLINE. DAMAGING WINDS ...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAXIMIZED.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST WEDNESDAY FEB 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE AN ELEVATED
RISK OF WILDFIRES AS A DRYLINE ADVANCES EAST.  GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NONE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
517 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             MARLOW                  34.64N 97.96W
02/10/2009  E1.75 INCH       STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
530 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             DUNCAN                  34.52N 97.97W
02/10/2009  E0.88 INCH       STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
530 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

OKZ028-029-040-102345-
CLEVELAND OK-MCCLAIN OK-GARVIN OK-
530 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND...GARVIN AND
MCCLAIN COUNTIES.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR CHICKASHA
TO RUSH SPRINGS AND MARLOW AT 530 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.  THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL APPROACH MOORE...NORMAN...PURCELL
AND PAULS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 30 TO 60 MINUTES.  WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED.

PEOPLE IN CLEVELAND...GARVIN AND MCCLAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF MOORE...NORMAN AND OKLAHOMA CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             3 E TABLER              35.05N 97.77W
02/10/2009  E0.88 INCH       GRADY              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SMITH