Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
318 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING TIGHT SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM NO JUST NORTH OF THE MID STATE AND A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
EAST TX. ALOFT...CLOSED ML/UL LOWS TRAILING JUST BEHIND. AIRMASS OVER
THE CWA CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND DEWPTS STILL REMAINING ON
THE LOWER SIDE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING. LINE OF STORMS
MOVING IN FROM WEST TN REMAINS FAIRLY ORGANIZED BUT HAS ALSO SHOWN SIGNS
OF WEAKENING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KY TODAY AS UPPER LOWS OPEN. THIS WILL
DRAG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THERMO-DYNAMIC PARAMETERS CONTINUING THEIR CURRENT UPSWING THROUGH
THE MORNING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER...AND WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN.
CURRENT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES LATER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STRONG INSTABILITY...AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES LIKELY
TO SPAWN A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE OFF THE PLATEAU TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SHOWERS NORTHEAST.

SFC RIDGE AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TIGHT
SFC/UPPER LOW PASSING NORTH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS HOWEVER
WILL DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD WITH PASSING WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY DRY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO THE FOLD THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  46  62  41 /  80  30   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    69  43  62  38 /  80  20   0   0
CROSSVILLE     66  46  59  37 /  90  50  20   0
COLUMBIA       70  47  63  42 /  80  20   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   71  47  64  42 /  60  20   0  10
WAVERLY        69  44  63  40 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1039 AM CDT THU APR 9 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-101030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1039 AM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE MIDSTATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER
SITUATION THROUGH LOCAL MEDIA OR THE INTERNET AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO.

JLM