Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
338 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD ACROSS THE MID STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.

FORECAST FOR TODAY IS PARTIALLY HINGED TO POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEASTWARD
-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY AN MCS CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY PRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS, STRETCHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY, WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE ONCE AGAIN TO
OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS. INDEED, EARLY THIS MORNING, WE CAN SEE ANOTHER
OUTFLOW PUSHING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
IN ADDITION, MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE 90+ DEG AFTERNOON HEAT.
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR ANY PARTICULAR SPOT TO GET A THUNDERSTORM
IS STILL QUITE SMALL, BUT THOSE THAT GET THEM COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS, DOWNPOURS AND HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY).

COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY,
AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, RAIN SHOULD
FINALLY START TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
WITH THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING LONGEST OVER OUR MOST SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY DURING THE WED-FRI PERIOD, WITH MOST
AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE STORM TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES...AND
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED FLOOD PROBLEMS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND, AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
OUR AREA. HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND LEADS TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  67  87  64 /  10  10  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    91  64  84  61 /  10  10  60  60
CROSSVILLE     86  61  82  61 /  10  10  40  60
COLUMBIA       91  67  88  65 /  10  10  40  60
LAWRENCEBURG   92  66  91  65 /  10  10  40  60
WAVERLY        91  66  86  63 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME
ACTIVE WEATHER LASTING INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AS
A RESULT, ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     HAIL             OLD HICKORY             36.26N 86.65W
06/02/2009  E0.75 INCH       DAVIDSON           TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

&&

MTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1224 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 PM     HAIL             HENDERSONVILLE          36.29N 86.60W
06/02/2009  E0.88 INCH       SUMNER             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT INTERSECTION OF CURTIS CROSS ROAD AND SAUNDERS FERRY
            ROAD IN HENDERSONVILLE.

&&

MTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     HAIL             2 W CENTERVILLE         35.79N 87.49W
06/02/2009  E0.75 INCH       HICKMAN            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY S.O. NEAR CENTERVILLE.

&&

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
106 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     HAIL             8 SE HOHENWALD          35.47N 87.46W
06/02/2009  E0.75 INCH       LEWIS              TN   PUBLIC

            PENNEY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC NEAR THE INTERSECTION
            OF SUMMERTOWN RD AND NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY

&&

JLM