Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 021715
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1215 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

TNC037-165-189-021745-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-090602T1745Z/
DAVIDSON TN-SUMNER TN-WILSON TN-
1215 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WILSON...SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER AND NORTHEASTERN
DAVIDSON COUNTIES...

AT 1213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  PENNY SIZED HAIL WAS 
REPORTED IN OLD HICKORY AT 1207.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
HENDERSONVILLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GALLATIN...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MILLERSVILLE BY 1230 PM CDT...
  6 MILES WEST OF GALLATIN BY 1245 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3649 8664 3636 8638 3614 8657 3625 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 214DEG 9KT 3630 8662

$$

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 021737
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

TNC037-165-189-021746-
/O.CAN.KOHX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-090602T1745Z/
DAVIDSON TN-SUMNER TN-WILSON TN-
1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WILSON...
SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER AND NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS.

LAT...LON 3649 8664 3636 8638 3614 8657 3625 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 214DEG 9KT 3634 8658

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
338 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD ACROSS THE MID STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.

FORECAST FOR TODAY IS PARTIALLY HINGED TO POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEASTWARD
-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY AN MCS CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY PRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS, STRETCHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY, WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE ONCE AGAIN TO
OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS. INDEED, EARLY THIS MORNING, WE CAN SEE ANOTHER
OUTFLOW PUSHING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
IN ADDITION, MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE 90+ DEG AFTERNOON HEAT.
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR ANY PARTICULAR SPOT TO GET A THUNDERSTORM
IS STILL QUITE SMALL, BUT THOSE THAT GET THEM COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS, DOWNPOURS AND HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY).

COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY,
AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, RAIN SHOULD
FINALLY START TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
WITH THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING LONGEST OVER OUR MOST SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY DURING THE WED-FRI PERIOD, WITH MOST
AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE STORM TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES...AND
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED FLOOD PROBLEMS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND, AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
OUR AREA. HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND LEADS TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  67  87  64 /  10  10  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    91  64  84  61 /  10  10  60  60
CROSSVILLE     86  61  82  61 /  10  10  40  60
COLUMBIA       91  67  88  65 /  10  10  40  60
LAWRENCEBURG   92  66  91  65 /  10  10  40  60
WAVERLY        91  66  86  63 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME
ACTIVE WEATHER LASTING INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AS
A RESULT, ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

ROSE